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The paper aims to estimates the limitations of a forced distribution performance appraisal system in identifying the highest performing individuals within an organization. Traditionally, manpower modeling allows organizations to develop plans that meet future human resource requirements by modeling the flow of personnel within an organization. The aim is to quantify the limitations of a performance appraisal system in identifying the best-qualified individuals to fill future requirements.

This paper describes an exploratory study using discrete event simulation based on the assignment, evaluation and promotion history of over 2,500 officers in the US Army. The obtained data provide a basis for estimating simulation inputs that include system structure, system dynamics, human behavior and policy constraints. The simulation approach facilitates modeling officers who receive evaluations as they move throughout the system over time.

The paper provides insights into the effect of system structure and system dynamics on the evaluation outcome of employees. It suggests that decreasing the number of a rater’s subordinates has a significant effect on the accuracy of performance appraisals. However, increasing the amount of time individuals spend on each assignment has little effect on system accuracy.

This research allows an organization’s leadership to evaluate the possible consequences associated with evaluation policy prior to policy implementation.

This work advances a framework in assessing the effect of system dynamics and structure, and the extent to which they limit or enhance the accuracy of an organization’s forced distribution performance appraisal system.

This research develops a data-driven statistical model capable of predicting a US Army Reserve (USAR) unit staffing levels based on unit location demographics. This model provides decision makers an assessment of a proposed station location’s ability to support a unit’s personnel requirements from the local population.

This research first develops an allocation method to overcome challenges caused by overlapping unit boundaries to prevent over-counting the population. Once populations are accurately allocated to each location, we then then develop and compare the performance of statistical models to estimate a location’s likelihood of meeting staffing requirements.

This research finds that local demographic factors prove essential to a location’s ability to meet staffing requirements. We recommend that the USAR and US Army Recruiting Command (USAREC) use the logistic regression model developed here to support USAR unit stationing decisions; this should improve the ability of units to achieve required staffing levels.

This research meets a direct request from the USAREC, in conjunction with the USAR, for assistance in developing models to aid decision makers during the unit stationing process.

The purpose of this study was to create an air movement operations planning model to rapidly generate air mission request (AMR) assignment and routing courses of action (COA) in order to minimize unsupported AMRs, aircraft utilization and routing cost.

In this paper, the US Army Aviation air movement operations planning problem is modeled as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) as an extension of the dial-a-ride problem (DARP). The paper also introduces a heuristic as an extension of a single-vehicle DARP demand insertion algorithm to generate feasible solutions in a tactically useful time period.

The MILP model generates optimal solutions for small problems (low numbers of AMRs and small helicopter fleets). The heuristic generates near-optimal feasible solutions for problems of various sizes (up to 100 AMRs and 10 helicopter team fleet size) in near real time.

Due to the inability of the MILP to produce optimal solutions for mid- and large-sized problems, this research is limited in commenting on the heuristic solution quality beyond the numerical experimentation. Additionally, the authors make several simplifying assumptions to generalize the average performance and capabilities of aircraft throughout a flight.

This research is the first to solve the US Army Aviation air movement operations planning problem via a single formulation that incorporates multiple refuel nodes, minimization of unsupported demand by priority level, demand time windows, aircraft team utilization penalties, aircraft team time windows and maximum duration and passenger ride time limits.

The successful implementation of quality management in organizations is dependent on people, particularly leaders. It seems as if leaders' affective states (attitudes and commitment) in the military were connected to their capability to inspire people and a group (corps training unit) to achieve a common goal. The research reported in this article was aimed at examining officers in corps training units' attitudes towards, and commitment to quality management in training in the South African Army.

Focus group interviews were conducted with a sample of 49 officers on various levels (senior, junior and warrant officers) at six South African Army corps training units.

The findings indicate that the attitudes of leaders played a significant role to ensure that quality management of training is conducted effectively. Participants experienced that leaders in the South African Army were mostly responsible for the negative attitudes of officers in corps training units. Inadequate leadership support and lack of trust contributed to a lack of transparency and poor communication that resulted in poor commitment among officers at corps training units. The investigation further revealed that a positive affective state (attitudes and commitment) of leaders is essential in ensuring effective quality management of training.

The potential usefulness of this research may provide insight into how leaders' affective state could be improved to ensure effective quality management. This research may also be of interest to other organizations that conduct in-house training.

The purpose of this paper is to help optimize sustainment logistics for US Army brigade combat teams, which may face challenges in transporting their assigned assets.

This paper develops a simulation framework with an integrated integer programming optimization model. The integer-programming model optimizes sustainment outcomes of supported battalions on a daily basis, whereas the simulation framework analyzes risk associated with shortfalls that may arise over the entire duration of a conflict.

This work presents a scenario reflecting the steady resupply of an infantry brigade combat team during combat operations and presents an in-depth risk analysis for possible fleet compositions.

The risk curves obtained allow decision-makers and commanders to optimize vehicle fleet design in advance of a conflict.

To recover the growing deficit between American and near-peer mobile artillery ranges, the US Army is exploring the use of the M982 Excalibur munition, a family of long-range precision projectiles. This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of the M982 in comparison to the M795 and M549A1 projectiles to further the understanding of what this new asset contributes.

Based upon doctrinal scenarios for target destruction, a statistical analysis is performed using Monte Carlo simulation to identify a likely probability of kill ratio for the M982. A values-based hierarchical modeling approach is then used to differentiate the M982 from similar-type projectiles quantitatively in terms of several different attributes. Finally, sensitivity analyzes are presented for each of the value attributes, to identify areas where measures may lack robustness in precision.

Based upon a set of seven value measures, such as maximum range, effective range, the expected number of rounds to destroy a target, and the unit cost of a munition, the M982 1a-2 was found to be best suited for engaging point and small area targets. It is noted, however, that the M795 and M549A1 projectiles are likely better munition options for large area targets. Hence, an integrated targeting plan may best optimize the force’s weapon systems against a near-peer adversary.

The findings provide initial evidence that doctrinal adjustments in how the Army uses its artillery systems may be beneficial in facing near-peer adversaries. In addition, the values-based modeling approach offered in this research provides a framework for which similar technological advances may be examined.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting.

Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper.

This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker.

This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.

Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals..

This work culls data from open sources, using a zip-code-based classification method to develop more comprehensive forecasting methods with which US Army recruiting leaders can better establish recruiting goals.

This study aims to compare linear programming and stable marriage approaches to the personnel assignment problem under conditions of uncertainty. Robust solutions should exhibit reduced variability of solutions in the presence of one or more additional constraints or problem perturbations added to some baseline problems.

Several variations of each approach are compared with respect to solution speed, solution quality as measured by officer-to-assignment preferences and solution robustness as measured by the number of assignment changes required after inducing a set of representative perturbations or constraints to an assignment instance. These side constraints represent the realistic assignment categorical priorities and limitations encountered by army assignment managers who solve this problem semiannually, and thus the synthetic instances considered herein emulate typical problem instances.

The results provide insight regarding the trade-offs between traditional optimization and heuristic-based solution approaches.

The results indicate the viability of using the stable marriage algorithm for talent management via the talent marketplace currently used by both the U.S. Army and U.S. Air Force for personnel assignments.