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Based on a lecture prepared as part of the celebration of Cranfield University's 50th anniversary. After briefly reviewing the early years, including Cranfield University's entry into this technology, discusses the nature of this industry, Some of the technology drivers, including environmental concerns, are examined to provide a background against which the development and the future of the industry can be considered. This is followed by a brief survey of some of the possible new civil aero gas turbine applications over the next 50 years, both the very likely and some curiosities. Finally, the changes that are likely to occur within the industry as a result of wider economic and political trends are considered, as well as the implications for those working within the industry. The development of the civil aero gas turbine has contributed, in large measure, to today's, US$ 300 billion civil aviation industry and is rightly seen as one of mankind's major engineering achievements. A single paper cannot do justice to this industry.

Military technology is traditionally shrouded in secrecy. Even joint research between allies can be a marriage of convenience. But with the end of the Cold War and greater European integration, the technological landscape is changing, and a closer interface is emerging between military and civilian technologies. A worldwide stagnation in defence spending is accelerating the take‐up of commercial off‐the‐shelf technologies, while in the aerospace sector, the factors of safety and the environment are becoming at least as important as cost.

IN less than two years‘ time—on March 29, 1966—the Society of British Aerospace Companies will celebrate the completion of fifty years’ activity. It was on March 29, 1916, that the Society of British Aircraft Constructors was incorporated, thus being younger than the Royal Aeronautical Society and Royal Aero Club but two years older than the Royal Air Force. The Society continued under that title until February 26 this year, when by special resolution at an extraordinary general meeting its name was changed to the ‘Society of British Aerospace Companies’. The new title thus retains the well‐known initials S.B.A.C. but embraces more appropriately the wide range of activities of the Society's Members— not only the manufacture of aircraft, but of engines, missiles, electronics, hydraulics, electrical equipment, and all other components and materials essential to a modern aerospace industry. The new title also brings the Society into line with comparable engineering associations in the United States, France, Germany and Italy.

AMONG all the anxious, complex and difficult problems which confront the United Kingdom and its people in these times of economic and social stress, there are none of more importance and significance for the future than those of British manufacturing in general and of the Aircraft — or “Aerospace” — Industry in particular.

The aerospace industry relies heavily on protective treatments and processes to ensure that the structural integrity of an aircraft is not degraded in service as a result of operating under harsh corrosive conditions. Many of the chemicals and processes currently employed in metal finishing have been found to cause pollution and long‐term damage to the environment. Legislation and international agreements are now in place which ultimately will lead to a ban or major reduction in the use of many of these processes and coatings. The aircraft constructors and operators are seeking to adopt new protective schemes and treatments which will satisfy future environmental requirements.

The Paris/Le Bourget International Air and Space Show is the world's oldest international show and is of considerable importance. It will have 548 exhibitors from 23 countries and there will be 165,000 square metres of display area — with 10,000 square metres for the out‐door static exhibits. The numbers of chalets is to be increased by 55.

The US aerospace industry is currently being challenged by both strong international competittion in the commerical sector and the effects of declining defence budgets on government contracts. In an effort to meet these challenges, the industry is experimenting with new ways of organizing. One of the most effective new organizational structures is the product development team (PDT). Briefly examines what a PDT is and the advantages this type of organization has over the conventional functional type of structure. Because when to use PDTs and when not to is of critical importance, and includes guidelines to aid in the decision‐making process. Since implementing PDTs involves a major corporate culture change, problems will occur. Both potential problems and suggested strategies for resolution are included to provide some solace for the frustrated. The bottom line on PDTs is that they can greatly improve product quality while reducing costs and time to market. The effort of implementation is great, but so are the potential rewards.

Airplane technology is undergoing several exciting developments, particularly in avionics, material composites, and design tool capabilities, and, though there are many studies conducted on subsets of airplane technology, market, and economic parameters, few exist in forecasting new commercial aircraft model introduction. In fact, existing research indicates the difficulty in quantitatively forecasting commercial airplanes due in part to the complexity and quantity of exogenous factors which feed into commercial airplane introduction decisions. This paper seeks to address this gap.

The analysis is based on a literature review, supplemented by a collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying three technology forecasting techniques: multiple regression; linear regression; and the Pearl growth curve.

The results provide a valid model for multiple regression and linear regression on range and composite material percentage for use in commercial airplane forecasting. However, growth curve analysis, comparatively, appears to provide the most intriguing and flexible forecast outlook in alignment with industry dynamics.

Research implications include a caution for forecasters in support of the difficulty of commercial aircraft forecasting due in part to the quantity of exogenous factors, particularly compared with a related industry, military aircraft. Future work could include: utilizing other forecasting techniques that allow for greater numbers of forecast factors, additional future models, additional range aircraft and/or analyzing the impact that competing transportation modes in mid‐range aircraft could have on long‐range aircraft introduction.

The study provides value in extending a previous descriptive paper on airplane parameters. Additionally, it appears to be one of the first quantitative examples supporting previous research indicating the complexity of forecasting airplane new product introduction, but it overcomes some of this complexity by providing a valid model for forecasting with range and composite material percentage as inputs.

SAC was formed in July 1961 by three directors, Roger Smedley, Peter Allard, and Ian Creer to provide contract design services to the engineering industry. The name of the company was derived from the initial letters of the surnames of the directors, who previously worked together at the Bristol Aeroplane Company, hence the early specialisation of SAC in aeronautical engineering.