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1 – 10 of 749Shelly Singhal, Sangita Choudhary and Pratap Chandra Biswal
The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run association and short-run causality among oil price, exchange rate and stock market in Norwegian context.
Design/methodology/approach
This work uses auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound co-integration test to examine the long-run association among international crude oil, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market. Further to test the causality, Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test is used. Daily data ranging from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2018 is used in this study.
Findings
Findings of this study suggest the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among oil price, exchange rate and Norwegian stock market when oil price is taken as dependent variable. Further, this study observes the bi-directional causality between Norwegian stock market and exchange rate and unidirectional causality between oil and Norwegian stock market (from oil to stock market).
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this the first study in context of Norway to explore the long-run association and causal relationships among international crude oil price, exchange rate and stock market index. Particularly, association of exchange rate and stock market largely remains unexplored for Norwegian economy. Further, majority of studies conducted in Norwegian setup have considered the period up to year 2010 and association of these variables is found to be time varying. Finally, this study uses ARDL bound co-integration test and Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test. These methodologies have been used in literature in context of other countries like India and Mexico but not yet applied to study the Norwegian case.
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Niharika Sinha and Swati Shastri
This paper empirically examines the impact of financial development on domestic investment in India for the period 1989–2017.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper empirically examines the impact of financial development on domestic investment in India for the period 1989–2017.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration to test the long-run relationship between financial development and domestic investment. To test the direction of causality, Toda–Yamamoto causality test and vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test have been employed. Investment has been measured by Gross Capital Formation. To capture various aspects of financial development in India, eight alternative indicators (both bank based and market based) have been used. With the help selected indicators, a composite index (FINDEX) of financial development has been constructed using principal component analysis (PCA).
Findings
The estimated result finds evidence in favour of positive, short-run and long-run impact of financial development on investment in the Indian economy. Both bank-based and market-based indicators are found to significantly affect the level of investment. The significant effect of efficiency-based financial development indicators (both bank based and market based) upon domestic investment implies that there is a need to implement policies that ensure the efficiency of financial intermediation.
Originality/value
To the best of authors' knowledge, not much research has been done to explore the relationship between financial development and domestic investment, especially in the case of Indian economy. This study also tries to find the impact of bank-based and market-based financial development indicators upon domestic investment to explore banks vs market issue.
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Rajveer Kaur Ritu and Amanpreet Kaur
The research is geared towards studying the impact of “GDP per capita (GDP)”, “energy consumption (EC)”, “human capital (HC)” and “trade openness (TO)” on India's ecological…
Abstract
Purpose
The research is geared towards studying the impact of “GDP per capita (GDP)”, “energy consumption (EC)”, “human capital (HC)” and “trade openness (TO)” on India's ecological footprint (EF) from 1997–1998 to 2019–2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound test was used to look at the short-run and long-term coefficients and the cointegration of the variables.
Findings
The results depicted a long-run connection between the variables. The long-run results found a favourable relationship between GDP, EC and EF, indicating that economic growth through heavy reliance on fossil fuels contributes to environmental unsustainability. An inverse relationship between HC, TO and EF was also observed, indicating that education fosters pro-environmental behaviour and leads to adopting cleaner technology that contributes to environmental sustainability.
Research limitations/implications
The research substantiates India's pressing requirement for sustainable development, ensuring a harmonious balance between economic performance and environmental preservation. A carefully designed policy needs to be formulated to mitigate emissions stemming from growth in India. Policymakers are urged to implement measures that promote ecologically friendly tools, utilities and transportation to curb long-term environmental degradation.
Originality/value
The study is novel, incorporating an exhaustive review using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). This study further examines how India's EF is affected by its HC; the preceding literature has yet to discuss much about the connection between HC and the environment. Finally, the study employed advanced econometric techniques, namely the cointegration technique and ARDL model, to find the relationship between EF, GDP, HC, EC and TO.
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Ibrahim M. Awad, Ghada K. Al-Jerashi and Zaid Ahmad Alabaddi
This empirical paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate (IR) and political instability (POLINS) on Palestine's domestic private investment.
Abstract
Purpose
This empirical paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate (IR) and political instability (POLINS) on Palestine's domestic private investment.
Design/methodology/approach
A set of econometric techniques of time series data are adopted to meet the study objectives. They include regression analysis, unit root tests, cointegration test, ARDL & Bound tests, VAR test and Granger causality test.
Findings
The study's primary results complement the neoclassical approach, which states that the IR is negatively associated with domestic private investment. The empirical results reveal that there is no long-run relationship. Also, there is no causality between domestic investment and lending rates. Accordingly, these findings alert policymakers to draw a series of steps to minimize the IR at a minimum to stimulate investment for improved economic growth and development.
Practical implications
There is still no national currency in Palestine. The Palestinian Monetary Authority (PMA) is advised to set an appropriate ratio of the IR for the currencies-in-circulation in Palestine for boosting investment and economic development.
Originality/value
This paper provides new background information to both policymakers and researchers on the main determinants of investment in Palestine using econometric analysis. Accordingly, this critical issue is required to be examined in Palestine for stimulating investment.
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Deepti Singh and Shruti Shastri
The purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus among public expenditure allocated to education, educational attainment at secondary level and unemployment rate in India for the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the nexus among public expenditure allocated to education, educational attainment at secondary level and unemployment rate in India for the period 1987–2017.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach suggested by Pesaran et al. (2001) to find the long-run relationship among the variables. The causal linkages are investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model.
Findings
The empirical results indicate that educational attainment proxied by gross enrolment ratio at secondary level of education negatively affects unemployment rate in long run as well as in short run. However, public expenditure on education is ineffective in influencing both educational attainment and unemployment rate.
Originality/value
The study is the first empirical effort to identify the causal nexus among public expenditure on education, educational attainment and unemployment in the context of India.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-06-2019-0396
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Education had proven to be one of the main determinants of economic growth, and it is a reason of the variations in economic growth levels between developed and developing…
Abstract
Education had proven to be one of the main determinants of economic growth, and it is a reason of the variations in economic growth levels between developed and developing countries. One of the main dimensions in studding the relationship between economic growth and education is the gender dimension or the importance of gender equality or female education in achieving economic growth. This chapter aims to test the hypothesis of the existence of a positive relationship between female education and economic growth in Egypt since 1990.
To address this question, Auto Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test approach is conducted to analyze the co-integration between female education and economic growth using Egyptian Data for the period 1990–2022. The Empirical analysis for Egypt suggests the existence of positive significant relationship both in the short run and long run and that the impact of female education on economic growth is larger than the impact of education in general on growth. This could be explained by the existence of gender gap in Egypt, labor market, and thus, more educated girls able to enter the labor market will affect the economic growth more than the education of both sexes, in other words, there is still a room for improvement in the female labor market opportunities than for both sexes. The chapter also confirms the existence of a direct link between education in general and economic growth and thus confirms the hypothesis of the positive impact of education economic growth.
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Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia and Muhammad Ahad
This study aims to examine the relationships between aggregated and disaggregated energy use in the industrial sector, carbon emissions and industrial output in China.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the relationships between aggregated and disaggregated energy use in the industrial sector, carbon emissions and industrial output in China.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes annual frequency data for the period of 1984-2015. The unit root properties of data are tested using augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips and Perron unit root tests. Furthermore, the Zivot–Andrew structural breaks unit root test is used to detect the structural breaks steaming into series. The autoregressive distributed lag bound test and newly developed Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration are used to check the existence of a cointegration relationship between underlying variables. Last, the direction of causality is determined applying vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality.
Findings
The results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship in the presence of structural breaks. The authors conclude that aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption in the industrial sector increases CO2 emission in both long and short run. The VECM Granger causality analysis indicates the bidirectional relationships between CO2 emission, industrial growth and aggregated and disaggregated (coal, oil and natural gas) energy consumption.
Research limitations/implications
Based on the empirical results mentioned above, the study proposes the recommendation that China should focus on the use of natural gas in the industrial sector instead of coal and oil consumption. The most potent reasons for such a transformation are twofold: natural gas is much more environment-friendly, thus being a much lesser polluting source of energy, and, most significantly, such a change would have no adverse impact upon the output level.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature on estimating CO2 emission by using aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption in case of China. Notwithstanding, it also adds to the existing applied literature by using newly developed combined cointegration to confirm and substantiate the cointegration relationship between the underlying variables. Moreover, this study incorporates the role of structural breaks while investigating CO2 emission function, which helps in providing more valuable policy suggestions.
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Ahamed Lebbe Mohamed Aslam and Sabraz Nawaz Samsudeen
The objective of this study is to explore the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period of 1960–2018.
Abstract
Purpose
The objective of this study is to explore the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka over the period of 1960–2018.
Design/methodology/approach
Both exploratory and inferential data analysis tools have been employed to examine the objective of this study. The exploratory data analysis covered the scatter plots, confidence ellipse with kernel fit. The inferential data analysis included the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) unit root tests, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) Bounds co-integration technique and the Granger causality test.
Findings
The test result of exploratory data analysis indicates that there is a positive relationship between foreign aid and economic growth. The ADF and PP unit root tests results indicate that the variables used in this study are stationary at their 1st difference. The co-integration test result confirms the presence of long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka. The estimated coefficient of foreign aid in the long-run and the short-run shows that foreign aid has a positive relationship with economic growth in Sri Lanka. The estimated coefficient of error correction term indicates that approximately 26.6% of errors are adjusted each year and further shows that the response variable of economic growth moves towards the long-run equilibrium path. The Granger causality test result shows that foreign aid in short-run Granger causes economic growth in Sri Lanka which means that one-way causality from foreign aid to economic growth is confirmed. Further, the estimated coefficient of error correction term confirms that there is the long-run Granger causal relationship between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka.
Practical implications
The findings of this study have some important policy implications for the design of efficient policy related to foreign aid and economic growth, the knowledge of which will help follow sustainable foreign aid and growth nexus.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature by using the newly introduced ARDL Bounds cointegration technique to investigate the dynamic inter-linkage between foreign aid and economic growth in Sri Lanka.
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This paper addresses the question “Does the growth of nonperforming loan ratio (GNPL) have a temporal impact on private credit growth (PCG)?” for the Bangladesh banking industry…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper addresses the question “Does the growth of nonperforming loan ratio (GNPL) have a temporal impact on private credit growth (PCG)?” for the Bangladesh banking industry during and after the global financial crisis of 2008.
Design/methodology/approach
It employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the temporal equilibrium relationship and causality between PCG and GNPL.
Findings
The results of ARDL bound tests confirm the existence of a single cointegrating vector and temporal equilibrium relationship between variables of interest. According to the error correction mechanism (ECM), there is unidirectional causality from GNPL to PCG in the long run and short run. In the long run, higher GNPL curtails PCG since bankers use the nonperforming loan ratio as a signal and indicator of credit risk in their loan decision-making. In the short run, GNPL positively impacts PCG. It may be because banks go through a rigorous process before declaring a loan as nonperforming that takes time. At the same time, bankers' loan decisions may also be guided by the banks myopic concern of reputation in the short run.
Practical implications
The paper recommends policy prescriptions for the bank risk management, regulatory bodies and the legal authorities. The lending policy of banks should consider the legacy of bad assets. The efficiency of the legal system can also aid in effectively implementing the regulatory guidelines.
Originality/value
The paper inaugurates a bivariate cointegration analysis between PCG and GNPL in the literature. It has utilized quarterly aggregate data in the context of a developing economy like Bangladesh.
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This study aims to examine short- and long-run effects of specific macroeconomic conditions on risk premium estimates on lending.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine short- and long-run effects of specific macroeconomic conditions on risk premium estimates on lending.
Design/methodology/approach
Empirical estimates are based on error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models.
Findings
The results suggest that, in the short run, inflation expectations, recession expectations and actual inflationary conditions tend to have a significant impact on risk premium estimates; in the long run, however, only inflation expectations and recession expectations are significant in risk premium estimates on lending.
Originality/value
This study examines how specific conditions of uncertainty and expectations influence variability in risk premium estimates on lending in the US economy.
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