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Article
Publication date: 12 June 2024

Yu Qiao, Lirong Jian and Hechang Cai

To overcome the limitations of traditional multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methods, which only provide deterministic rankings of decision objects, this paper proposes a…

Abstract

Purpose

To overcome the limitations of traditional multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methods, which only provide deterministic rankings of decision objects, this paper proposes a novel multi-attribute 3WD model. This model presents three-parameter interval grey number decision-theoretic rough sets (TPIGNDTRSs), aiming to offer a reasoned interpretation of loss functions in grey environments and ensure objective assessment of conditional probabilities.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the traditional equivalence relation is replaced with the probabilistic dominance relation (PDR), categorizing decision objects into two state sets in DTRS for more objective conditional probabilities. Secondly, as the three-parameter interval grey number (TPIGN) introduces the most probable value on the basis of the traditional two-parameter interval grey number, it provides a more comprehensive method for describing grey information. Consequently, integrating TPIGN into DTRS refines the interpretations of loss functions in grey environments. Finally, by utilizing two main sorting techniques, relative kernel and degree of accuracy ranking and possibility ranking, two types of 3WD rules with TPIGNDTRSs, are constructed.

Findings

This study has successfully developed and validated a new multi-attribute 3WD model. The model was tested in two distinct domains: evaluating innovation efficiency in high-tech enterprises and recommending movies in a practical case. The findings reveal that the model can effectively integrate relevant information of high-tech enterprises, provide the government with enterprise-level assessments, and gather consumer preferences to recommend the most suitable movies.

Research limitations/implications

This study treats the loss function as grey information in the 3WD model but overlooks the grey nature of evaluation values, limiting its applicability. Additionally, the model’s reliance on subjective expert judgments and historical data to establish the loss function may affect its objectivity. The implications of this research are that the novel model overcomes traditional MADM limitations, enhancing decision-making quality and efficiency in complex and grey scenarios. The model’s successful application in evaluating high-tech enterprises and recommending movies illustrates its dual value in both theory and practice.

Originality/value

Initially, the model proposed in this study is of significant importance for the development of the 3WD field, as it successfully addresses the challenges of uncertain loss functions and unknown conditional probabilities in grey information environments. Moreover, by integrating the 3WD model with MADM problems, it has broken through the bottlenecks of traditional MADM methods, offering new perspectives and strategies for solving MADM issues. Therefore, this research not only advances theoretical research but also provides powerful tools for practical applications.

Article
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Lan Xu and Yaofei Wang

The purpose of this study is to establish a grey-entropy-catastrophe progression method (CPM) model to assess the photovoltaic (PV) industry chain resilience of Jiangsu Province…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to establish a grey-entropy-catastrophe progression method (CPM) model to assess the photovoltaic (PV) industry chain resilience of Jiangsu Province in China.

Design/methodology/approach

First, we designed the resilience evaluation index system of such a chain from two aspects: the external environment and internal conditions. We then constructed a PV industry chain resilience evaluation model based on the grey-entropy-CPM. Finally, the feasibility and applicability of the proposed model were verified via an empirical case study analysis of Jiangsu Province in China.

Findings

As of the end of 2022, the resilience level of its PV industry chain is medium-high resilience, which indicates a high degree of adaptability to the current unpredictable and competitive market, and can respond to the uncertain impact of changes in conditions effectively and in a timely manner.

Practical implications

The construction of this model can provide reference ideas for related enterprises in the PV industry to analyze the resilience level of the industrial chain and solve the problem of industrial chain resilience.

Originality/value

Firstly, an analysis of the entire industrial chain structure of the PV industry, combined with its unique characteristics is needed to design a PV industry chain resilience evaluation index system. Second, grey relational analysis (GRA) and the entropy method were adopted to improve the importance of ranking the indicators in the evaluation of the CPM, and a resilience evaluation model based on grey-entropy-CPM was constructed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 May 2024

Youyang Ren, Yuhong Wang, Lin Xia, Wei Liu and Ran Tao

Forecasting outpatient volume during a significant security crisis can provide reasonable decision-making references for hospital managers to prevent sudden outbreaks and dispatch…

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasting outpatient volume during a significant security crisis can provide reasonable decision-making references for hospital managers to prevent sudden outbreaks and dispatch medical resources on time. Based on the background of standard hospital operation and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) periods, this paper constructs a hybrid grey model to forecast the outpatient volume to provide foresight decision support for hospital decision-makers.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes an improved hybrid grey model for two stages. In the non-COVID-19 stage, the Aquila Optimizer (AO) is selected to optimize the modeling parameters. Fourier correction is applied to revise the stochastic disturbance. In the COVID-19 stage, this model adds the COVID-19 impact factor to improve the grey model forecasting results based on the dummy variables. The cycle of the dummy variables modifies the COVID-19 factor.

Findings

This paper tests the hybrid grey model on a large Chinese hospital in Jiangsu. The fitting MAPE is 2.48%, and the RMSE is 16463.69 in the training group. The test MAPE is 1.91%, and the RMSE is 9354.93 in the test group. The results of both groups are better than those of the comparative models.

Originality/value

The two-stage hybrid grey model can solve traditional hospitals' seasonal outpatient volume forecasting and provide future policy formulation references for sudden large-scale epidemics.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 May 2024

Li Li and Xican Li

In order to solve the decision-making problem that the attributive weight and attributive value are both interval grey numbers, this paper tries to construct a multi-attribute…

Abstract

Purpose

In order to solve the decision-making problem that the attributive weight and attributive value are both interval grey numbers, this paper tries to construct a multi-attribute grey decision-making model based on generalized greyness of interval grey number.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, according to the nature of the generalized gresness of interval grey number, the generalized weighted greyness distance between interval grey numbers is given, and the transformation relationship between greyness distance and real number distance is analyzed. Then according to the objective function that the square sum of generalized weighted greyness distances from the decision scheme to the best scheme and the worst scheme is the minimum, a multi-attribute grey decision-making model is constructed, and the simplified form of the model is given. Finally, the grey decision-making model proposed in this paper is applied to the evaluation of technological innovation capability of 6 provinces in China to verify the effectiveness of the model.

Findings

The results show that the grey decision-making model proposed in this paper has a strict mathematical foundation, clear physical meaning, simple calculation and easy programming. The application example shows that the grey decision model in this paper is feasible and effective. The research results not only enrich the grey system theory, but also provide a new way for the decision-making problem that the attributive weights and attributive values are interval grey numbers.

Practical implications

The decision-making model proposed in this paper does not need to seek the optimal solution of the attributive weight and the attributive value, and can save the decision-making labor and capital investment. The model in this paper is also suitable for the decision-making problem that deals with the coexistence of interval grey numbers and real numbers.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realizing the multi-attribute grey decision-making model based on generalized gresness and its simplified forms, which provide a new method for grey decision analysis.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2024

Shubhendu Singh, Subhas Misra and Gaurvendra Singh

Additive Manufacturing technology (AMT) is swiftly gaining prominence to induce automation and innovation in manufacturing systems. It holds immense potential to change supply…

Abstract

Purpose

Additive Manufacturing technology (AMT) is swiftly gaining prominence to induce automation and innovation in manufacturing systems. It holds immense potential to change supply chain dynamics by providing the possibility of printing objects on demand. This study thus formulates and analyzes the framework to incorporate AMT to handle the spare parts supply chain management (SPSCM) in capital-intensive industries by identifying and assessing the critical success factors (CSFs).

Design/methodology/approach

Assessment of the CSFs is performed using the novel Grey Causal Modeling method (GCM) with the objective of making SPSCM resilient and efficient. GCM conducts causal analysis by taking into consideration cause, effects, the objectives, and the situations.

Findings

Findings indicate that; Logistics Lead Time (SD4), Time to manufacture (SD3), Management Support (SD11), and Risk Management (SD20) are the most prominent causal factor having a maximum impact when incorporating AMT in SPSCM. The results also reveal that the performance of manufacturing organizations that adopt AMT is substantially influenced by internal and external factors such as Management Support (SD11) and Government Regulations (SD16).

Research limitations/implications

This research provides valuable information for getting the global spare parts supply chain equipped for the post-COVID age, where digital technologies such as AMT will be fundamental for bolstering supply chain resilience and efficiency.

Originality/value

This research proposes a framework for performance assessment when incorporating AMT in SPSCM. Study also demonstrates methodological application of novel Grey Causal Modelling technique using a real case in a spare parts manufacturing industry in India.

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2023

R. Rajesh

The author aims to study and predict the sustainability governance performances of firms using an advanced grey prediction model. The case implication of the prediction model is…

Abstract

Purpose

The author aims to study and predict the sustainability governance performances of firms using an advanced grey prediction model. The case implication of the prediction model is also studied considering select firms in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

The author has proposed an advanced grey prediction model, the first-entry grey prediction model (FGM (1, 1)) for forecasting the sustainability governance performances of firms. The proposed model is tested using the periodic data of sustainability governance performances of 10 Indian firms.

Findings

The author observes that the majority of firms (6 out of 10) show dipping performances for sustainability governance for the future predicted period. This throws insights into the direction of improving good governance practices for Indian firms.

Practical implications

The idea and motivation for sustainability-focussed governance need a bi-directional focus from the side of managers that act as the agents and from the side of shareholders that act as the principals, as seen from an agency theory perspective for sustainability governance.

Social implications

Sustainability governance culture can be inculcated to a firm at the strategic level by having a bi-directional focus from managers and shareholders, so as to enhance the social and environmental sustainability performances.

Originality/value

The governance performance evaluations for firms particularly in developing countries were not dated back more than a decade or two. Hence, the author implements a prediction model that can be best suited, when there are small periodic data sets available for prediction.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 31 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 May 2024

Damla Yalçıner Çal and Erdal Aydemir

The purpose of this paper is to propose a scenario-based grey methodology using clustering and optimizing with imprecise and uncertain body size data in an emergency assembly…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a scenario-based grey methodology using clustering and optimizing with imprecise and uncertain body size data in an emergency assembly point area to assign the people on a campus to reach the emergency assembly points under uncertain disaster times.

Design/methodology/approach

Grey clustering and a new grey p-median linear programming model are developed to determine which units to assign to the pre-determined assembly points for a main campus in case of a disaster. The models have two scenarios: 70 and 100% occurrence capacities of administrative and academic personnel and students.

Findings

In this study, the academic and administrative units have been assigned to determine five different emergency assembly points on the main campus by using the numbers of the academic and administrative personnel and student and distances of the units to the assembly point areas of each other. The alternative solutions are obtained effectively by evaluating capacity utilization rates in the scenarios.

Practical implications

It is often unclear when disasters can occur and therefore, a preliminary preparation time must be required to minimize the risk. In the case of natural, man-made (unnatural) or technological disasters, the people are required to defend themselves and move away from the disaster area as soon as possible in a proper direction. The proposed assignment model yields a final solution that effectively eliminates uncertainty regarding the selection of emergency assembly points for administrative and academic staff as well as students, in the event of disasters.

Originality/value

Grey clustering suggests an assignment plan and concurrently, an investigation is underway utilizing the grey p-median linear programming model. This investigation aims to optimize various scenarios and body sizes concerning emergency assembly areas. All campus users who are present at the disaster in units of the campus are getting uncertainty about which emergency assembly point to use, and with this study, the vital risks aim to be ultimately reduced with reasonable plans.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2024

R.M. Kapila Tharanga Rathnayaka and D.M.K.N. Seneviratna

The global population has been experiencing an unprecedentedly rapid demographic transition as the populations have been growing older in many countries during the current…

Abstract

Purpose

The global population has been experiencing an unprecedentedly rapid demographic transition as the populations have been growing older in many countries during the current decades. The purpose of this study is to introduce a Grey Exponential Smoothing model (GESM)-based mechanism for analyzing population aging.

Design/methodology/approach

To analyze the aging population of Sri Lanka, initially, three major indicators were considered, i.e. total population, aged population and proportion of the aged population to reflect the aging status of a country. Based on the latest development of computational intelligence with Grey techniques, this study aims to develop a new analytical model for the analysis of the challenge of disabled and frail older people in an aging society.

Findings

The results suggested that a well-defined exponential trend has been seen for the population ages 65 and above, a total of a million) during 1960–2022; especially, the aging population ages 65 and above has been rising rapidly since 2008. This will increase to 24.8% in 2040 and represents the third highest percentage of elderly citizens living in an Asian country. By 2041, one in every four Sri Lankans is expected to be elderly.

Originality/value

The study proposed a GESM-based mechanism for analyzing the population aging in Sri Lanka based on the data from 1960 to 2022 and forecast the aging demands in the next five years from 2024 to 2028.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 May 2024

Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken, Benjamin Salomon Diboma, Ali Khalili Tazehkandgheshlagh, Mohammed Hamaidi, Prosper Gopdjim Noumo, Yong Wang and Jean Gaston Tamba

This paper addresses the challenges associated with forecasting electricity consumption using limited data without making prior assumptions on normality. The study aims to enhance…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper addresses the challenges associated with forecasting electricity consumption using limited data without making prior assumptions on normality. The study aims to enhance the predictive performance of grey models by proposing a novel grey multivariate convolution model incorporating residual modification and residual genetic programming sign estimation.

Design/methodology/approach

The research begins by constructing a novel grey multivariate convolution model and demonstrates the utilization of genetic programming to enhance prediction accuracy by exploiting the signs of forecast residuals. Various statistical criteria are employed to assess the predictive performance of the proposed model. The validation process involves applying the model to real datasets spanning from 2001 to 2019 for forecasting annual electricity consumption in Cameroon.

Findings

The novel hybrid model outperforms both grey and non-grey models in forecasting annual electricity consumption. The model's performance is evaluated using MAE, MSD, RMSE, and R2, yielding values of 0.014, 101.01, 10.05, and 99% respectively. Results from validation cases and real-world scenarios demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model. The combination of genetic programming and grey convolution model offers a significant improvement over competing models. Notably, the dynamic adaptability of genetic programming enhances the model's accuracy by mimicking expert systems' knowledge and decision-making, allowing for the identification of subtle changes in electricity demand patterns.

Originality/value

This paper introduces a novel grey multivariate convolution model that incorporates residual modification and genetic programming sign estimation. The application of genetic programming to enhance prediction accuracy by leveraging forecast residuals represents a unique approach. The study showcases the superiority of the proposed model over existing grey and non-grey models, emphasizing its adaptability and expert-like ability to learn and refine forecasting rules dynamically. The potential extension of the model to other forecasting fields is also highlighted, indicating its versatility and applicability beyond electricity consumption prediction in Cameroon.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 June 2024

Lucas Gabriel Zanon, Tiago F.A.C. Sigahi, Rosley Anholon and Luiz Cesar Ribeiro Carpinetti

This paper applies fuzzy grey cognitive maps (FGCM) to support multicriteria group decision making (GDM) on supply chain performance (SCP) considering the role of organizational…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper applies fuzzy grey cognitive maps (FGCM) to support multicriteria group decision making (GDM) on supply chain performance (SCP) considering the role of organizational culture as a moderating factor.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper follows the quantitative axiomatic prescriptive model-based research. It introduces a MGDM model that relies on the SCOR® model performance attributes and Hofstede’s cultural dimensions. The proposal is underpinned by the soft computing technique of FGCM, aimed at addressing the inherent subjectivity associated with evaluating the culture-performance relationship within supply chains.

Findings

The FGCM-based model proposes a management matrix tool for supporting SPC management. It results in a graphical representation that deconstructs SCP and organizational culture into key elements and provides directives for action plans that align improvement efforts. An illustrative application is presented to guide and promote the model’s application in different configurations of supply chains.

Practical implications

This model offers valuable insights into addressing the impact of organizational culture on decision-making related to SCP. Additionally, it facilitates scenario simulation. The management matrix visually illustrates how each performance attribute is influenced by each cultural dimension on a quantitative scale. It also ranks these attributes based on the overall level of influence they receive from culture.

Originality/value

The study provides a unique outlook on the use of FGCMs to support the SCP decisional process by detailing and accounting for the influence of organizational culture. This is done through the development of a novel matrix that allows for visual management and benchmarking.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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