Search results

The simulated scenarios can be used to compute risk premiums per risk class in the portfolio. These can then be used to adjust the policy premiums by accounting for storm risk.

A complete model to analyse and characterise future losses of the property portfolio of an insurance company due to hurricanes is proposed. The model is calibrated by using the loss data of the Fidelidade insurance company property portfolio resulting from Hurricane Leslie, which hit the centre of continental Portugal in October, 2018.

Several scenarios are simulated and risk maps are constructed. The risk map of the company depends on its portfolio, especially its exposure, and provides a Hurricane risk management tool for the insurance company.

A statistical model is considered, in which weather data is not required. The authors reconstruct the behaviour of storms through the registered claims and respective losses.

This paper showcases how the PAR embedded in posthumanist perspectives enabled us to navigate several complexities in the field through methodological situatedness and pluralism. It also attempts to critically outline the drivers and barriers that shaped our capacities to engage with the PAR.

The Tamil Nadu state in the Bay of Bengal along the southeast coast of India is one of the six regions in the world where severe tropical cyclones originate throughout the year. Storm surges in this region are well known for their destructive potential due to strong winds and heavy rainfall. This paper describes our participatory action research (PAR) journey towards strengthening grassroots action by providing access to safe and affordable housing for cyclone-impacted households (CIHs) in the Villupuram district of Tamil Nadu, India. The PAR was guided by an adaptive innovation model (AIM) that draws inspiration from posthumanism, action research and reflective practice traditions.

The insights from the PAR insist that we must recognise and work with diverse knowledge systems and situated practices to develop meaningful disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate adaptation strategies. Our approach has to be rooted in the lived experiences of various vulnerable groups, their entanglements with nature and their everyday struggles of interacting with a complex social-ecological system.

This paper is an outcome of a PAR in a cyclone-impacted village in Tamil Nadu, India. The discussions and findings of the paper are original in nature and have not been published elsewhere.

Climate hazards in the form of cyclones are projected to become more intense under the pressures of future climate change. These changes represent a growing hazard to low lying coastal cities like Beira, Mozambique. In 2019, Beira experienced the devastating impact of Cyclone Idai. One of the many impacts resulting from this Cyclone was disrupted drinking water access. This investigation explores the distribution of Cyclone Idai’s impact on drinking water access via an environmental justice lens, exploring how preexisting water access characteristics may have predisposed households to the impacts of Cyclone Idai in Beria.

Relying on household survey data collected in Beira, the investigation applied a decision tree algorithm to investigate how drinking water disruption was distributed across the household survey sample using these preexisting vulnerabilities.

The investigation found that households that mainly relied upon piped water sources and experienced inconsistent access to water in the year prior to Cyclone Idai were more likely to experience disrupted drinking water access immediately after Cyclone Idai. The results indicate that residents in formal areas of Beira, largely reliant upon piped water supply, experienced higher rates of disrupted drinking water access following Cyclone Idai.

These findings question a commonly held assumption that informal areas are more vulnerable to climate hazards, like cyclones, than formal areas of a city. The findings support the inclusion of informal settlements in the design of climate change adaptation strategies.

This short paper builds on and critiques work presenting potential non-disasters: disasters that did not seem to happen despite a major hazard. Previous work does not differentiate among different types of potential non-disasters. This short paper uses local information to propose three categories according to reasons for vulnerability being low or absent. These proposed categories are used to critique the construct of “potential non-disasters”.

This short paper uses a subjective approach to examples of potential non-disasters in 2022, focusing on local information that describes what happened. This information is applied and analysed for the three proposed categories using examples from Japan, Nepal, the Philippines and Vietnam. Such comparisons are useful for critiquing “potential non-disasters”, by understanding better local approaches and information available for reporting on situations that could be disasters.

Potential non-disasters remain relevant for exploring mechanisms, tools and actions for educating about vulnerability causes and vulnerability reduction to avert disasters. Limitations are evident by relying on media reports, even local ones with local authors. A suggestion is to implement a grant programme for collecting data immediately after a major hazard without an evident, major disaster. Additionally, an annual report and critique of each year's potential non-disasters, categorised and analysed, would help to evidence the presence and limits of the “potential non-disaster” construct.

This short paper contributes a much deeper theoretical dive into understanding potential non-disasters, both describing them and the drawbacks of the construct. To practitioners, the construct now offers more avenues for actions while illustrating their effectiveness in reducing vulnerabilities. Thus, this paper supports multiple, linked pathways towards more non-disasters.

This paper investigates how agile capabilities in humanitarian settings work in combination, and its effects on performance outcome. The study was conducted in the frame of reference of response operations during cyclones and floods, which is considered most complex and with the most widespread impact.

A survey-based method was used to collect empirical data on response operations from 131 field officers who were involved in disaster response during cyclones or floods. A partial least square based structural equation model was used to study the path model of interaction of agile capabilities, and their effect on performance outcomes.

The results show that integration of agile capabilities is important for enhancing effectiveness of humanitarian response. The results indicated a serial mediation effect involving visibility, responsiveness and flexibility capability on the effectiveness of emergency response.

This research has implications for response units of humanitarian organisations. This includes capacity building for key agile capabilities, integration, supply chain re-configuration and differential positioning of response phase as against preparedness and recovery phases.

This study is unique for the chosen humanitarian setting, which is considered most difficult. The authors demonstrate from empirical evidence the interaction effects of agile capabilities during response phase for cyclones and floods, and their impact. The research insights will help practitioners to configure and position supply chains for better effectiveness during response operations, which have markedly different objectives vis-à-vis other phases or types of humanitarian settings.

Disruptions at ports may destroy the planned ship schedules profoundly, which is an imperative operation problem that shipping companies need to overcome. This paper attempts to help shipping companies cope with port disruptions through recovery scheduling.

This paper studies the ship coping strategies for the port disruptions caused by severe weather. A novel mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to solve the ship schedule recovery problem (SSRP). A distributionally robust mean conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) optimization model was constructed to handle the SSRP with port disruption uncertainties, for which we derive tractable counterparts under the polyhedral ambiguity sets.

The results show that the size of ambiguity set, confidence level and risk-aversion parameter can significantly affect the optimal values, decision-makers should choose a reasonable parameter combination. Besides, sailing speed adjustment and handling rate adjustment are effective strategies in SSRP but may not be sufficient to recover the schedule; therefore, port skipping and swapping are necessary when multiple or longer disruptions occur at ports.

Since the port disruption is difficult to forecast, we attempt to take the uncertainties into account to achieve more meaningful results. To the best of our knowledge, there is barely a research study focusing on the uncertain port disruptions in the SSRP. Moreover, this is the first paper that applies distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to deal with uncertain port disruptions through the equivalent counterpart of DRO with polyhedral ambiguity set, in which a robust mean-CVaR optimization formulation is adopted as the objective function for a trade-off between the expected total costs and the risk.

In the realm of disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts and disaster resilience discipline globally, the impacts of disasters at the family level – especially in terms of interpersonal relationships – remain largely understudied. This paper aims to explore the impacts of postdisaster relocation on the internal dynamics of families in Southville 7 in Calauan, Laguna, Philippines during the aftermath of the 2009 typhoon Ketsana, and endeavors to inform institutional policies to strengthen families’ disaster resilience.

Purposive sampling was applied in choosing the 20 participating families for the case study of Site III, Southville 7 – a relocation site housing more than 3,000 displaced families from Metro Manila during typhoon Ketsana. Data gathering methods such as semistructured interviews and personal observations were used during fieldwork, the findings of which were coded to reveal the study’s analytical themes.

Research findings reveal that the impacts of postdisaster relocation to family dynamics could be classified into seven broad categories: family composition and structure; members’ roles; parenting; parents’ marital relationship; familial relationship; family member’s personalities; and death and disabilities. The interplay between these impacts results in either stronger overall family cohesion or further relational ruptures.

By spotlighting the impacts of disasters on overall family dynamics in the context of postdisaster relocation, this study seeks to elevate the place of the family in the DRR and disaster resilience discourse.

Research in critical disaster studies stresses the urgency to explore alternative ontological framings (Gaillard and Raju, 2022) that encourages researchers and practitioners, especially Indigenous communities, to nurture spaces where Indigenous voices are well represented. It is imperative that research in the Pacific should be guided by Pacific research methodologies to maximize positive outcomes (Ponton, 2018) and break free from limited Eurocentric ideologies that are often ill-suited in Pacific contexts. Hazards in the South Pacific region have become more frequent and volatile. This has created a growing interest in the study of disasters in the region. However, current disaster studies in the Pacific are often problematic as they often fail to challenge the implicit coloniality of the discipline.

This paper will expand on these arguments, suggesting ways to overcome the limits of common Eurocentric research frameworks in disaster studies and to illustrate the significance and relevance of Pacific methodologies.

It is pertinent that critical disaster studies encapsulate Pacific worldviews and knowledge as valued and valid to reconstruct Pacific research. Decolonizing disaster research will ultimately liberate the discipline from limitations of its colonial past and allow for truly engaging and critical research practices.

This paper will illustrate and articulate how Talanoa, a pan-Pacific concept, could offer a more culturally appropriate research methodology to disasters, seen through a Samoan lens. Talanoa is an informal conversation that is widely shared among Pacific communities based on pure, authentic and real conversations which are crucial elements in building relationships with Pacific communities (Vaioleti, 2006).