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Prospects for Venezuela in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

The outlook for the government is positive. A thaw in relations with the United States and EU, plus sanctions relief, will bring economic benefits and social spending. The slow…

Germany’s CDU will shift further to the right

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GERMANY

After months of internal division, the CDU’s senior figures united behind leader Friedrich Merz, elected a new executive and adopted a new programme that marks a reversion to…

Pragmatism will sustain Italy’s support for Ukraine

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ITALY

Allies feared that the election of Meloni and her populist right-wing government last September would threaten Western unity over Ukraine. However, Meloni has used the issue to…

Maduro concerns could bring new Venezuela candidates

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VENEZUELA

This is despite the efforts of a succession of US presidents and Venezuelan opposition leaders, and despite the US sanctions regime. Given his record of victories against external…

Argentina stabilisation plan will prove challenging

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ARGENTINA

With Milei now predicting six months of stagflation and up to two years to reduce inflation from triple digits, dollarisation appears to have been shelved. Instead, he seems…

Guatemala’s new president will not bring major change

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GUATEMALA

His candidacy is nevertheless proving turbulent, with challenges launched in recent weeks, against both the first-round results and Semilla’s right to run.

Latin American politicians will court evangelical vote

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LATIN AMERICA

However, academic research shows no regional pattern in terms of their political identity or voting behaviour. This is also the case among Catholics. Studies also show that the…

New Irish leader will struggle to reverse polls

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IRELAND

Harris replaces Leo Varadkar, who surprisingly announced that he was stepping down ahead of local, EU and national elections. In his first speech as party leader, Harris suggested…

Intense horse-trading lies ahead in Indonesia

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INDONESIA

Official results should be announced by March 20.

Prospects for United States politics to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

The first primary contests are due early next year. Both parties will focus on improving their 2024 electoral prospects, though at the state level there will be less Republican…