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The purpose of this study is to examine Bitcoin's price behavior across market conditions, focusing on the influence of Bitcoin's historical prices, news sentiment and market indicators like oil prices, gold and the S&P index. The authors also assess the stability of Bitcoin-inclusive hedging portfolios under different market conditions, for example, bearish, bullish and moderate market states.

This study uses the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to explore the effects of different factors on Bitcoin's prices across various market situations. This method allows for a detailed analysis of historical trends, investor expectations and external market influences on Bitcoin's price movements and systematic stability.

Key findings reveal historical prices and investor expectations significantly influence Bitcoin in all market scenarios, with news sentiment exhibiting substantial volatility. This study indicates that oil prices have minimal impacts on Bitcoin, whereas gold is a stabilizing asset in bear markets, with the S&P index influencing short-term fluctuations. At the same time, Bitcoin's volatility varies with market conditions, proving more efficient as a hedging tool in bear and stable markets than in bull ones.

This study highlights the intrinsic correlation between Bitcoin's prices, news sentiment and financial market indicators, enhancing understanding of Bitcoin's market dynamics. The authors demonstrate Bitcoin's weak direct correlation with commodities like oil, the stabilizing role of gold in crypto portfolios and the stock market's indirect effect on Bitcoin prices. By examining these factors' impacts across various market conditions, the findings offer strategies for investors to improve hedging and portfolio management in cryptocurrency markets.

This study probes the psychological interplay between investor sentiment and the returns of cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum. Employing the Granger causality test, the authors aim to gauge how extensively the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) can predict cryptocurrency return movements, exploring the intricate bond between investor emotions and market behavior.

The authors used the Granger causality test to achieve research objectives. Going beyond conventional linear analysis, the authors applied Smooth Quantile Regression, scrutinizing weekly data from July 2022 to June 2023 for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The study focus was to determine if the FGI, an indicator of investor sentiment, predicts shifts in cryptocurrency returns.

The study findings underscore the profound psychological sway within cryptocurrency markets. The FGI notably predicts the returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum, underscoring the lasting connection between investor emotions and market behavior. An intriguing feedback loop between the FGI and cryptocurrency returns was identified, accentuating emotions' persistent role in shaping market dynamics. While associations between sentiment and returns were observed at specific lag periods, the nonlinear Granger causality test didn't statistically support nonlinear causality. This suggests linear interactions predominantly govern variable relationships. Cointegration tests highlighted a stable, enduring link between the returns of Bitcoin, Ethereum and the FGI over the long term.

Despite valuable insights, it's crucial to acknowledge our nonlinear analysis's sensitivity to methodological choices. Specifics of time series data and the chosen time frame may have influenced outcomes. Additionally, direct exploration of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors was absent, signaling opportunities for future research.

This study enriches theoretical understanding by illuminating causal dynamics between investor sentiment and cryptocurrency returns. Its significance lies in spotlighting the pivotal role of investor sentiment in shaping cryptocurrency market behavior. It emphasizes the importance of considering this factor when navigating investment decisions in a highly volatile, dynamic market environment.

This study argues that online user comments on social media platforms provide feedback and evaluation functions. These functions can provide services for the relevant departments of organizations or institutions to formulate corresponding public opinion response strategies.

This study considers Chinese universities’ public opinion events on the Weibo platform as the research object. It collects online comments on Chinese universities’ network public opinion governance strategy texts on Weibo, constructs the sentiment index based on sentiment analysis and evaluates the effectiveness of the network public opinion governance strategy adopted by university officials.

This study found the following: First, a complete information release process can effectively improve the effect of public opinion governance strategies. Second, the effect of network public opinion governance strategies was significantly influenced by the type of public opinion event. Finally, the effect of public opinion governance strategies is closely related to the severity of punishment for the subjects involved.

The theoretical contribution of this study lies in the application of image repair theory and strategies in the field of network public opinion governance, which further broadens the scope of the application of image repair theory and strategies.

This study expands online user comment research to network public opinion governance and provides a quantitative method for evaluating the effect of governance strategies.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-05-2022-0269

Farmer sentiment may be an important indicator for the agricultural sector, similar to the way that consumer sentiment is linked to the general economy. This study uses the Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer to test the degree to which farmer sentiment is correlated with demand for United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct loan applications.

We estimate the dynamics between farmer sentiment and applications to FSA direct operating or farm ownership loans using monthly measures of farmer sentiment and loan applications from October 2015 to April 2023 and pairwise vector autoregression.

A negative relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct operating loan applications. In contrast, a positive relationship exists between farmer sentiment and FSA direct farm ownership loan applications. Together, the estimated nonzero relationships suggests that the Ag Economy Barometer may be a leading indicator for the Agricultural Economy and that FSA loan programs play a nuanced role in the agricultural credit market.

This study uses unique data sources to further the discussion on the link between farmer sentiment and real economic outcomes and the role of an important US Federal Government farmer lending program: FSA direct loans.

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the Greek house market during the period 2006–2022 using not only economic variables but also behavioral variables, taking advantage of available information on the volume of Google searches. In order to quantify the behavioral variables, we implement a Python code using the Pytrends 4.9.2 library.

In our study, we assert that models relying solely on economic variables, such as GDP growth, mortgage interest rates and inflation, may lack precision compared to those that integrate behavioral indicators. Recognizing the importance of behavioral insights, we incorporate Google Trends data as a key behavioral indicator, aiming to enhance our understanding of market dynamics by capturing online interest in Greek real estate through searches related to house prices, sales and related topics. To quantify our behavioral indicators, we utilize a Python code leveraging Pytrends, enabling us to extract relevant queries for global and local searches. We employ the EGARCH(1,1) model on the Greek house price index, testing several macroeconomic variables alongside our Google Trends indexes to explain housing returns.

Our findings show that in some cases the relationship between economic variables, such as inflation and mortgage rates, and house prices is not always consistent with the theory because we should highlight the special conditions of the examined country. The country of our sample, Greece, presents the special case of a country with severe sovereign debt issues, which at the same time has the privilege to have a strong currency and the support and the obligations of being an EU/EMU member.

The results suggest that Google Trends can be a valuable tool for academics and practitioners in order to understand what drives house prices. However, further research should be carried out on this topic, for example, causality relationships, to gain deeper insight into the possibilities and limitations of using such tools in analyzing housing market trends.

This is the first paper, to the best of our knowledge, that examines the benefits of Google Trends in studying the Greek house market.

Stock prices are subject to the influence of news and social media, and a discernible co-movement pattern exists among multiple stocks. Using a knowledge graph to represent news semantics and establish connections between stocks is deemed essential and viable.

This study presents a knowledge-driven framework for predicting stock prices. The framework integrates relevant stocks with the semantic and emotional characteristics of textual data. The authors construct a stock knowledge graph (SKG) to extract pertinent stock information and use a knowledge graph representation model to capture both the relevant stock features and the semantic features of news articles. Additionally, the authors consider the emotional characteristics of news and investor comments, drawing insights from behavioral finance theory. The authors examined the effectiveness of these features using the combined deep learning model CNN+LSTM+Attention.

Experimental results demonstrate that the knowledge-driven combined feature model exhibits significantly improved predictive accuracy compared to single-feature models.

The study highlights the value of the SKG in uncovering potential correlations among stocks. Moreover, the knowledge-driven multi-feature fusion stock forecasting model enhances the prediction of stock trends for well-known enterprises, providing valuable guidance for investor decision-making.

This paper aims to analyse the weekday effect on the Nifty Shariah indices as per the Islamic calendar. The study is intended to know about the return and volatility of these indices during Ramadhan and non-Ramadhan days.

The study focuses on analysing the Nifty Shariah indices and Sensex daily returns collected from NSE India and BSE India, respectively, during the period of 1 August 2016 to 31 July 2022. Descriptive statistics are used to analyse the data, while the Ordinary Least Square method is used to determine the impact of weekdays on the Nifty Shariah indices. Additionally, the study applies the GARCH statistical model to examine the influence of Ramadhan on the returns and volatility of the Nifty Shariah indices.

All of the Nifty Shariah indices produced positive returns during the overall sample period. According to the study, Tuesday index returns outperform other weekdays. The GARCH model indicated that the coefficient values for the Nifty 50 Shariah and Nifty 500 Shariah indices were negative. Ramadhan has a strong negative effect on volatility, according to this study.

The outcomes of the research are beneficial for investors aiming to exploit daily or weekly price fluctuations, rather than pursuing extended investment periods. Furthermore, fund managers can employ these findings to shape trading strategies, and academics can examine the performance of Shariah indices in the Indian context. This enables devout investors to make significant financial choices, thus advancing ethical values in society and upholding standards of both public and private morality.

Grounded in the stakeholder theory and signaling theory, this study aims to broaden the research agenda on environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing by uncovering public sentiments and key themes using Twitter data spanning from 2009 to 2022.

Using various machine learning models for text tonality analysis and topic modeling, this research scrutinizes 1,842,985 Twitter texts to extract prevalent ESG investing trends and gauge their sentiment.

Gibbs Sampling Dirichlet Multinomial Mixture emerges as the optimal topic modeling method, unveiling significant topics such as “Physical risk of climate change,” “Employee Health, Safety and well-being” and “Water management and Scarcity.” RoBERTa, an attention-based model, outperforms other machine learning models in sentiment analysis, revealing a predominantly positive shift in public sentiment toward ESG investing over the past five years.

This study establishes a framework for sentiment analysis and topic modeling on alternative data, offering a foundation for future research. Prospective studies can enhance insights by incorporating data from additional social media platforms like LinkedIn and Facebook.

Leveraging unstructured data on ESG from platforms like Twitter provides a novel avenue to capture company-related information, supplementing traditional self-reported sustainability disclosures. This approach opens new possibilities for understanding a company’s ESG standing.

By shedding light on public perceptions of ESG investing, this research uncovers influential factors that often elude traditional corporate reporting. The findings empower both investors and the general public, aiding managers in refining ESG and management strategies.

This study marks a groundbreaking contribution to scholarly exploration, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, by being the first to analyze unstructured Twitter data in the context of ESG investing, offering unique insights and advancing the understanding of this emerging field.

Stock markets are essential for households for wealth creation and for firms for raising financial resources for capacity expansion and growth. Market participants, therefore, need an understanding of stock price movements. Stock market indices and individual stock prices reflect the macroeconomic environment and are subject to external and internal shocks. It is important to disentangle the impact of macroeconomic shocks, market uncertainty and speculative elements and examine them separately for prediction. To aid households, firms and policymakers, the paper proposes a granular decomposition-based prediction framework for different time periods in India, characterized by different market states with varying degrees of uncertainty.

Ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and fuzzy-C-means (FCM) clustering algorithms are used to decompose stock prices into short, medium and long-run components. Multiverse optimization (MVO) is used to combine extreme gradient boosting regression (XGBR), Facebook Prophet and support vector regression (SVR) for forecasting. Application of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) helps identify feature contributions.

We find that historic volatility, expected market uncertainty, oscillators and macroeconomic variables explain different components of stock prices and their impact varies with the industry and the market state. The proposed framework yields efficient predictions even during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war period. Efficiency measures indicate the robustness of the approach. Findings suggest that large-cap stocks are relatively more predictable.

The paper is on Indian stock markets. Future work will extend it to other stock markets and other financial products.

The proposed methodology will be of practical use for traders, fund managers and financial advisors. Policymakers may find it useful for assessing the impact of macroeconomic shocks and reducing market volatility.

Development of a granular decomposition-based forecasting framework and separating the effects of explanatory variables in different time scales and macroeconomic periods.