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1 – 10 of 42Financial asset return series usually exhibit nonnormal characteristics such as high peaks, heavy tails and asymmetry. Traditional risk measures like standard deviation or…
Abstract
Purpose
Financial asset return series usually exhibit nonnormal characteristics such as high peaks, heavy tails and asymmetry. Traditional risk measures like standard deviation or variance are inadequate for nonnormal distributions. Value at Risk (VaR) is consistent with people's psychological perception of risk. The asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD) captures the heavy-tailed and biased features of the distribution. VaR is therefore used as a risk measure to explore the problem of VaR-based asset pricing. Assuming returns obey ALD, the study explores the impact of high peaks, heavy tails and asymmetric features of financial asset return data on asset pricing.
Design/methodology/approach
A VaR-based capital asset pricing model (CAPM) was constructed under the ALD that follows the logic of the classical CAPM and derive the corresponding VaR-β coefficients under ALD.
Findings
ALD-based VaR exhibits a minor tail risk than VaR under normal distribution as the mean increases. The theoretical derivation yields a more complex capital asset pricing formula involving β coefficients compared to the traditional CAPM.The empirical analysis shows that the CAPM under ALD can reflect the β-return relationship, and the results are robust. Finally, comparing the two CAPMs reveals that the β coefficients derived in this paper are smaller than those in the traditional CAPM in 69–80% of cases.
Originality/value
The paper uses VaR as a risk measure for financial time series data following ALD to explore asset pricing problems. The findings complement existing literature on the effects of high peaks, heavy tails and asymmetry on asset pricing, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers and regulators.
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This paper introduces a novel method, Variance Rule-based Window Size Tracking (VR-WT), for deriving a sequence of estimation window sizes. This approach not only identifies…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper introduces a novel method, Variance Rule-based Window Size Tracking (VR-WT), for deriving a sequence of estimation window sizes. This approach not only identifies structural change points but also ascertains the optimal size of the estimation window. VR-WT is designed to achieve accurate model estimation and is versatile enough to be applied across a range of models in various disciplines.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a new method named Variance Rule-based Window size Tracking (VR-WT), which derives a sequence of estimation window sizes. The concept of VR-WT is inspired by the Potential Scale Reduction Factor (PSRF), a tool used to evaluate the convergence and stationarity of MCMC.
Findings
Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that VR-WT accurately detects structural change points and select appropriate window sizes. The VR-WT is essential in applications where accurate estimation of model parameters and inference about their value, sign, and significance are critical. The VR-WT has also helped us understand shifts in parameter-based inference, ensuring stability across periods and highlighting how the timing and impact of market shocks vary across fields and datasets.
Originality/value
The first distinction of the VR-WT lies in its purpose and methodological differences. The VR-WT focuses on precise parameter estimation. By dynamically tracking window sizes, VR-WT selects flexible window sizes and enables the visualization of structural changes. The second distinction of VR-WT lies in its broad applicability and versatility. We conducted empirical applications across three fields of study: CAPM; interdependence analysis between global stock markets; and the study of time-dependent energy prices.
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Hassan Bruneo, Emanuela Giacomini, Giuliano Iannotta, Anant Murthy and Julien Patris
Biotech companies stand as key actors in pharmaceutical innovation. The high risk and long timelines inherent with their R&D investments might hinder their access to funding…
Abstract
Purpose
Biotech companies stand as key actors in pharmaceutical innovation. The high risk and long timelines inherent with their R&D investments might hinder their access to funding, potentially stifling innovation. This study aims to explore into the appeal of biotech companies to capital market investors, whose financial backing could bolster the growth of the biotechnology sector.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a dataset of 774 US publicly listed biotech firms to investigate their risk and return characteristics by comparing them to pharmaceutical firms and a sample of matched non-biotech R&D-intensive firms over the sample period 1980–2021. Tests show that the conclusions remain consistent across diverse methodological approaches.
Findings
The paper shows that biotech companies are riskier than the average firm in the market index but outperform on a risk-adjusted basis both the market and a matched group of R&D-intensive firms. This is particularly true for large capitalization biotech, which is also shown to provide a diversification benefit by reducing the downside risk in past crisis periods.
Originality/value
This paper provides insight relevant to the current debate about the overall performance of the biotech industry in terms of policy changes and their impact on small, early-stage biotech firms. While small and early-stage biotech firms are playing an increasing role in scientific innovation, this study confirms their greater vulnerability to financial risks and the importance of access to capital markets in enabling those companies to survive and evolve into larger biotech.
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Lin Han, Hansi Hu and Terry Walter
Are franking credit balances priced? This paper aims to investigate the valuation of franking credit balances via a determinant analysis and value relevance analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
Are franking credit balances priced? This paper aims to investigate the valuation of franking credit balances via a determinant analysis and value relevance analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The determinant analysis examines the factors that contribute to the increasing cumulative level of franking credit balances. Value relevance studies explore whether franking credit balances are priced in the market.
Findings
The results provide strong evidence of a size effect that the level of franking credit balances increases with firm size and weak evidence of an international focus effect that the level of franking credit balances increases with international ownership. They also find an individual dividend clientele effect that the level of franking credit balances decreases with individual ownership. They find significant evidence that franking credit balances are priced in the market. One dollar of franking credit is worth 1.4 dollars in firm value. That franking balances are capitalized at more than their face value suggests that franking credits signal firms' future dividend policy. They also find that the market valuation of franking balances increases with firm size but decreases with international focus.
Originality/value
This study provides direct evidence that franking credit balances are capitalized into equity prices. In the determinant analysis, this paper improves Heaney's (2009) model by using the percentage of international ownership as the proxy of international focus, thus addressing the limitation of his measure. In the value relevance tests, the study uses a modified model that includes log-transformation to reduce the skewness of variables based on Tanza's (2014) value relevance model. Moreover, the study suggests that the market valuation of franking credit balances increases with firm size, which contradicts Heaney's (2009) findings.
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This study aims to examine the relationship between investor gambling preferences and stock returns, using data for all firms listed in Shanghai A-share market during 2016 and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the relationship between investor gambling preferences and stock returns, using data for all firms listed in Shanghai A-share market during 2016 and 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs price and trading volume data to capture the behavioral characteristics and gambling preferences of investors. Using the Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models to estimate benchmark returns, this study investigates whether investing in gambling stocks can yield positive excess returns.
Findings
The study reveals that stocks identified as gambling stocks generate high returns in the month they are identified as such but subsequently experience a significant drop in excess returns compared to non-gambling stocks over the following one to six months. These results are found to be consistent across different methods used to classify gambling stocks and across various industry sectors.
Research limitations/implications
This research provides insights into the risk-return tradeoff of different stock types and the factors that fuel irrational investment behavior. This research underscores the importance of considering the behavioral elements of investment, particularly in emerging markets where individual investors have a significant impact.
Practical implications
This study advises investors to avoid adopting a gambler or speculative mindset and instead make well-informed and calculated investment decisions that are in line with investors financial objectives and risk appetite. This approach can help create a more stable and sustainable financial market.
Originality/value
This study provides new evidence on the relationship between gambling preferences and future stock returns in financial markets and sheds new light on the important role of irrational factors in investment decisions.
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Khurram Shahzad, Rizwan Ali and Ramiz Ur Rehman
This study aims to examine the nexus of corporate governance with firms' financial risk-taking behavior under the corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures in the context…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the nexus of corporate governance with firms' financial risk-taking behavior under the corporate social responsibility (CSR) disclosures in the context of non-financial listed firms of an emerging economy.
Design/methodology/approach
This study investigates the relationship between corporate governance as evaluated by an index and several financial risks, including idiosyncratic, default and systematic risks. The connection of corporate governance with financial risks is also studied while considering the moderation of CSR disclosures. The data are collected from 2014 to 2018 of 73 top 100-index listed non-financial firms of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Panel regression fixed effect and 2-step generalized method of moments techniques are applied to confirm the hypothesis along with the diagnostic tests to confirm that all outcomes of models must be authentic and reliable.
Findings
The study’s findings confirm that enhancing the overall corporate governance measures resulted in an augment in the firm’s risk due to weak control and regulations prevailing in emerging economies. Moreover, CSR disclosures enhance stakeholder information, lessen information asymmetry about management policies and mitigate the risk associated with operational uncertainties.
Practical implications
This study has a practical implementation to policymakers that effective monitoring and controlling measures facilitate the corporate management for minimizing the financial risks. Further, the study’s findings shed light that implementing corporate governance measures is not enough to mitigate financial risks until supervisory measures in the form of CSR disclosures are not taken to analyse corporate governance effectiveness.
Originality/value
This paper enhances the key findings in the literature by examining the role of corporate governance measures with respect to firms’ financial risks considering the moderating role of CSR disclosures. Furthermore, this research adds to the body of knowledge regarding the implementation of monitoring measures that assist in the mitigation of firms’ financial risks hence firm value.
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Investors who can transfer their savings to investments in a well-regulated market benefit not only themselves but also economic development. Hence, it is crucial for fund owners…
Abstract
Purpose
Investors who can transfer their savings to investments in a well-regulated market benefit not only themselves but also economic development. Hence, it is crucial for fund owners to evaluate their stock market investment decisions. The goal of the study is to understand which model determines the asset returns most efficiently. In this regard, the validity of single and multi-index asset pricing models (capital asset pricing model-CAPM and Fama–French models) has been examined in the Turkish Stock Exchange for 2009–2020, with the quantile regression (QR) approach.
Design/methodology/approach
On 18 portfolios comprised of quoted stocks in the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (ISE-100/BIST-100), we test the CAPM, the Fama and French three factor model (FF3) and the Fama and French five factor model (FF5). Empirical analyses have been carried out via QR approach regressing the portfolios' average weekly excess returns on risk premium/market factor (Rm-Rf), firm size, book value/market value (B/M), profitability and investments factors. QR estimation has been employed since QR is more effective and provides a better definition of the distribution’s tails.
Findings
Our empirical findings have revealed that the average excess weekly returns can be explained more strongly via CAPM. Moreover, Fama and French models are expected to give more reliable result with more data, whereas the market premium would give robust results for the Turkish Capital Market.
Practical implications
Individuals investing in financial assets must find the price model that best fits the market. The return can be approximated in the most appropriate manner using the right variables.
Originality/value
The study differs from other research by comparing the asset pricing models via examining the assets' weekly returns with QR in the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (ISE-100).
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Tapas Kumar Sethy and Naliniprava Tripathy
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the impact of systematic liquidity risk on the averaged cross-sectional equity return of the Indian equity market. It also examines the effects of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on the conditional volatility of the equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study employs the Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) for pricing systematic liquidity risk using the Fama & MacBeth cross-sectional regression model in the Indian stock market from January 1, 2012, to March 31, 2021. Further, the study employed an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (1,1) model to observe the impact of decomposed illiquidity on the equity market’s conditional volatility. The study also uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to illuminate the return-volatility-liquidity relationship.
Findings
The study’s findings indicate that the commonality between individual security liquidity and aggregate liquidity is positive, and the covariance of individual security liquidity and the market return negatively affects the expected return. The study’s outcome specifies that illiquidity time series analysis exhibits the asymmetric effect of directional change in return on illiquidity. Further, the study indicates a significant impact of illiquidity and decomposed illiquidity on conditional volatility. This suggests an asymmetric effect of illiquidity shocks on conditional volatility in the Indian stock market.
Originality/value
This study is one of the few studies that used the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) to measure liquidity and market risks as specified in the LCAPM. Further, the findings of the reverse impact of illiquidity and decomposed higher and lower illiquidity on conditional volatility confirm the presence of price informativeness and its immediate effects on illiquidity in the Indian stock market. The study strengthens earlier studies and offers new insights into stock market liquidity to clarify the association between liquidity and stock return for effective policy and strategy formulation that can benefit investors.
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Sharneet Singh Jagirdar and Pradeep Kumar Gupta
The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study reviews the literature on the history and evolution of investment strategies in the stock market for the period from 1900 to 2022. Conflicts and relationships arising from such diverse seminal studies have been identified to address the research gaps.
Design/methodology/approach
The studies for this review were identified and screened from electronic databases to compile a comprehensive list of 200 relevant studies for inclusion in this review and summarized for the cognizance of researchers.
Findings
The study finds a coherence to complex theoretical documentation of more than a century of evolution on investment strategy in stock markets, capturing the characteristics of time with a chronological study of events.
Research limitations/implications
There were complications in locating unpublished studies leading to biases like publication bias, the reluctance of editors to publish studies, which do not reveal statistically significant differences, and English language bias.
Practical implications
Practitioners can refine investment strategies by incorporating behavioral finance insights and recognizing the influence of psychological biases. Strategies span value, growth, contrarian, or momentum indicators. Mitigating overconfidence bias supports effective risk management. Social media sentiment analysis facilitates real-time decision-making. Adapting to evolving market liquidity curbs volatility risks. Identifying biases guides investor education initiatives.
Originality/value
This paper is an original attempt to pictorially depict the seminal works in stock market investment strategies of more than a hundred years.
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Mohammadreza Tavakoli Baghdadabad
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Abstract
Purpose
We propose a risk factor for idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate a cross-sectional model of expected entropy that uses several common risk factors to predict idiosyncratic entropy.
Findings
We find a negative relationship between expected idiosyncratic entropy and returns. Specifically, the Carhart alpha of a low expected entropy portfolio exceeds the alpha of a high expected entropy portfolio by −2.37% per month. We also find a negative and significant price of expected idiosyncratic entropy risk using the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
Originality/value
We propose a risk factor of idiosyncratic entropy and explore the relationship between this factor and expected stock returns. Interestingly, expected entropy helps us explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle that stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility earn low expected returns.
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