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1 – 10 of 103Łukasz Kurowski and Paweł Smaga
Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies…
Abstract
Purpose
Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the “soft” approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.
Design/methodology/approach
A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method.
Findings
Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports’ content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a “soft” policy mix in post-communist countries.
Practical implications
Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues.
Originality/value
The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors’ knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before.
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Anurag Chaturvedi and Archana Singh
The paper models the financial interconnectedness and systemic risk of shadow banks using Granger-causal network-based measures and takes the Indian shadow bank crisis of…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper models the financial interconnectedness and systemic risk of shadow banks using Granger-causal network-based measures and takes the Indian shadow bank crisis of 2018–2019 as a systemic event.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper employs pairwise linear Granger-causality tests adjusted for heteroskedasticity and return autocorrelation on a rolling window of weekly returns data of 52 financial institutions from 2016 to 2019 to construct network-based measures and calculate network centrality. The Granger-causal network-based measure ranking of financial institutions in the pre-crisis period (explanatory variable) is rank-regressed with the ranking of financial institutions based on maximum percentage loss suffered by them during the crises period (dependent variable).
Findings
The empirical result demonstrated that the shadow bank complex network during the crisis is denser, more interconnected and more correlated than the tranquil period. The closeness, eigenvector, and PageRank centrality established the systemic risk transmitter and receiver roles of institutions. The financial institutions that are more central and hold prestigious positions due to their incoming links suffered maximum loss. The shadow bank network also showed small-world phenomena similar to social networks. Granger-causal network-based measures have out-of-sample predictive properties and can predict the systemic risk of financial institutions.
Research limitations/implications
The study considers only the publicly listed financial institutions. Also, the proposed measures are susceptible to the size of the rolling window, frequency of return and significance level of Granger-causality tests.
Practical implications
Supervisors and financial regulators can use the proposed measures to monitor the development of systemic risk and swiftly identify and isolate contagious financial institutions in the event of a crisis. Also, it is helpful to policymakers and researchers of an emerging economy where bilateral exposures' data between financial institutions are often not present in the public domain, plus there is a gap or delay in financial reporting.
Originality/value
The paper is one of the first to study systemic risk of shadow banks using a financial network comprising of commercial banks and mutual funds. It is also the first one to study systemic risk of Indian shadow banks.
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This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study proposes a framework based on salience theory and shows that focusing on one type of risk (idiosyncratic or systemic) can explain overpricing of securities ex ante, and resales at low prices during crisis periods.
Design/methodology/approach
The author consider an overlapping generations (OLG) model where each generation lives for two periods and there is no population growth. Agents (investors) start their lives with an endowment W > 0 and have mean-variance utility. They invest their endowment when young and consume when old. Each period, the young investors optimally choose their portfolio from different risky assets acquired from the old generation, all assumed to be in fixed supply.
Findings
The author show that investor salience bias can explain excess volatility of asset prices and the resulting fire-sales in periods of financial turmoil. A change in salience – from one component (idiosyncratic) to the other (systemic) – will generate excess volatility. Interestingly, higher risk aversion generally exacerbates the excess volatility of prices. Moreover, the model predicts that if a big systemic shock hits the financial system, due to salience bias the price of systemic assets falls sharply. This relates to the observed fire-sales of assets during the global financial crisis.
Practical implications
The proposed model and results suggest that there may be a scope for intervention in financial markets during turbulences. In terms of ex ante policies the study suggests that investors and regulator should use better risk assessment technologies.
Originality/value
This is the first study constructing a tractable model based on the argument that investor salience may exacerbate the excess volatility of prices during financial downturns. The author relate salience to two types of risk; idiosyncratic and systemic and assume that investors' risk perception is biased towards the type of risk that is currently salient based on prior beliefs or past data. The author show that the diversification fallacy of the precrisis period, where seemingly safe assets were overpriced, can be explained by agents overweighing idiosyncratic risk and ignoring systemic risk.
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Paola Paoloni, Antonietta Cosentino, Simona Arduini and Gaetano della Corte
This paper aims to verify which intangible assets attributable to intellectual capital (IC) influence the anti-cyclical nature and the resilience of social enterprises (SEs…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to verify which intangible assets attributable to intellectual capital (IC) influence the anti-cyclical nature and the resilience of social enterprises (SEs) during systemic crises and whether these factors take on particular connotations in female-run SEs.
Design/methodology/approach
A qualitative methodology based on multiple case studies is used to answer the research questions. A set of SEs operating in the catering sector is analyzed. The analysis is carried out by in-depth interviews with male and female managers of SEs to understand which resilience IC factors were most activated during full emergency and recovery stages.
Findings
The results confirm the anti-cyclical nature of SEs and their resilience to systemic crises. No distinct differences emerge between female and male SEs. Concerning the IC, relational capital (RC) is the most relevant intangible asset for small and medium-sized SEs. Internal and external relations support them during the crisis and the consolidation of trusted ties, formal and informal, external and internal, favor the Recovery. The RC is a crucial resource even in bigger SEs, but some differences are detected concerning the smaller ones. In the smaller SEs, informal relations prevail, while formal relations prevail in the larger ones, particularly with institutions. Furthermore, the RC is the sole or primary resource in the smaller SEs, while the bigger SEs can count on more varied intangible resources.
Originality/value
This study offers an original contribution to studies on IC by focusing on the factors little analyzed by existing studies: (1) SE management, (2) the contribution of IC to the resilience of non-profit-oriented enterprises and (3) the search for elements of differentiation between SEs with male and female leadership.
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While poverty alleviation is the first core goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are considered important instruments for poverty…
Abstract
Purpose
While poverty alleviation is the first core goal of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and microfinance institutions (MFIs) are considered important instruments for poverty alleviation in developing countries as they provide credit access to the poor, there is surprisingly little evidence of the drivers of the lending behavior of microfinance institutions. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the factors that influence the credit growth of MFIs in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Design/methodology/approach
The study relies on unbalanced panel dataset of 130 MFIs operating across 31 countries in SSA during the period 2004–2014 constituting 546 useable observations. The study uses the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) Windmeijer bias-corrected standard errors to estimate the models.
Findings
The results confirm that while capitalization, liquidity and size are positively associated with credit growth, profitability negatively impacts credit growth; whereas, other MFI specific factors namely portfolio quality, deposit growth and nondeposit borrowing growth have little direct effects on MFI credit growth. The results also show that MFI credit growth is pro-cyclical but negatively related to GDP per capita consistent with the theory of convergence. On the other hand, inflation and employment are not important covariates in the credit growth of MFIs.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that if MFIs improve their liquidity and size by attracting more deposits and nondeposit borrowings, among others, they can increase credit access to the poor. Moreover, since the lending behavior of MFIs is not resilient to GDP shocks, different measures are needed to increase the financial stability of the microfinance industry. In this respect, since MFI capitalization is positively associated with credit growth and MFI credit growth is pro-cyclical, the findings provide useful insights to central banks/regulatory authorities and the Basel Committee as to the need for a counter-cyclical capital buffer requirement in the microfinance industry.
Originality/value
The study is the first comprehensive study to examine the drivers of MFI lending behavior as an extension to lending behavior models from the banking industry.
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Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.
Design/methodology/approach
This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.
Findings
This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.
Originality/value
This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.
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Zied Saadaoui and Salma Mokdadi
This paper aims to improve the debate linking the business models of banks to their riskiness by checking if diversification exerts different impacts on the probability of bank…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to improve the debate linking the business models of banks to their riskiness by checking if diversification exerts different impacts on the probability of bank distress depending on the level of capital buffers.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper focuses on a sample of listed bank holding companies observed between 2007:Q3 and 2022:Q4. The authors use three subindexes of bank diversification. The authors estimate a dynamic model specification using a system generalized method of moments with robust standard errors and consistent estimators under heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within a panel. Sensitivity and robustness checks are performed.
Findings
Asset and income diversification increase the probability of distress in low-capitalized banks during normal periods (excluding periods of crises and high uncertainty). Concerning crisis periods, a marginal increase in asset diversification during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis induces a more important increase in the probability of failure of well-capitalized banks relative to low-capitalized ones. Contrary to the results obtained for the GFC period, well-capitalized banks were found to pursue more careful funding diversification in reaction to the sudden increase of uncertainty during the Russia–Ukraine war.
Research limitations/implications
Prudential supervision should concentrate on well-capitalized banks to encompass unexpected excessive risk-taking during crisis periods. Regulatory requirements should constrain fragile banks to avoid pursuing assets and income diversification strategies that increase earnings volatility.
Originality/value
The main originality of this paper is to consider the interaction between three different dimensions of bank diversification and capital regulation during stable and unstable periods using the marginal effect analysis. Moreover, this paper uses, initially, the GFC as the reference crisis period to study the impact of capital buffers and diversification interactions on the probability of bank distress. Then, the authors extend the observation period until 2022:Q4 to include two additional major events, namely, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.
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Andrew Maskrey and Allan Lavell
The interview traces the early discussions in the context of disasters as developmental failures.
Abstract
Purpose
The interview traces the early discussions in the context of disasters as developmental failures.
Design/methodology/approach
The transcript and video was developed in the context of a United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) project on the history of DRR.
Findings
The interview traces the development of disaster risk reduction discussions in different contexts such as “LA RED” network in Latin America.
Originality/value
The interview clearly highlights the need to not forget the early thoughts on vulnerability and disaster risk.
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Dhulika Arora and Smita Kashiramka
Shadow banks or non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) are facilitators of credit, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs). However, there are certain risks associated…
Abstract
Purpose
Shadow banks or non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) are facilitators of credit, especially in emerging market economies (EMEs). However, there are certain risks associated with them, such as their unchecked leverage and interconnectedness with the rest of the financial system. In light of this, the present study analyses the impact of the growth of shadow banks on the stability of the banking sector and the overall stability of the financial system. The authors further examine the effect of the growth of finance companies (a type of NBFIs) on financial stability.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs data of 11 EMEs (monitored by the Financial Stability Board (FSB)) for the period 2002–2020 to examine the above relationships. Panel-corrected standard errors method and Driscoll–Kray standard error estimation are deployed to conduct the analysis.
Findings
The results signify that the growth of the shadow banking sector and the growth of lending to the shadow banking sector are negatively associated with the stability of the banking sector and increases the vulnerability of the financial system (overall instability). This implies that the higher the growth of the shadow banks, the higher the financial fragility. Finance companies are also found to negatively affect financial stability. These findings are validated by different estimation methods and point out the risks posed by the NBFI sector.
Originality/value
The extant study builds a composite index (Financial Vulnerability Index (FVI)) to measure financial stability; thus, the findings contribute to the evolving literature on shadow banks.
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Florin Aliu, Alban Asllani and Simona Hašková
Since 2008, bitcoin has continued to attract investors due to its growing capitalization and opportunity for speculation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of…
Abstract
Purpose
Since 2008, bitcoin has continued to attract investors due to its growing capitalization and opportunity for speculation. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of bitcoin (BTC) on gold, the volatility index (VIX) and the dollar index (USDX).
Design/methodology/approach
The series used are weekly and cover the period from January 2016 to November 2022. To generate the results, the unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR), structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and wavelet coherence were performed.
Findings
The findings are mixed as not all tests show the exact effects of BTC in the three asset classes. However, common to all the tests is the significant influence that BTC maintains on gold and vice versa. The positive shock in BTC significantly increases the gold prices, confirmed in three different tests. The effects on the VIX and USDX are still being determined, where in some tests, it appears to be influential while in others not.
Originality/value
BTC’s diversification potential with equity stocks and USDX makes it a valuable security for portfolio managers. Furthermore, regulatory authorities should consider that BTC is not an isolated phenomenon and can significantly influence other asset classes such as gold.
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