Global Tensions in Financial Markets: Volume 34
Table of contents(14 chapters)
The most popular method for calculating asset prices is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). What is the appropriate amount of years to use in the estimation and which variation of the capital asset pricing beta provides the best results? This research looks at the out-of-sample forecasting capabilities of three popular CAPM ex-post constant beta models from 2005 to 2014. A total of 11 portfolios, five from developed and six from developing markets, are used to test the amount of input years that will reduce the mispricing in both types of markets. It is found that the best beta model to use varies between developed and developing markets. Additionally, in developing markets, a shortened span of historical years improves the pricing, contrary to popular studies that use 5 to 10 years of historical data. There are many different CAPM studies implementing various betas, using different data input lengths and run in various countries. This study empirically tests the best practices for those interested in successfully using the CAPM for their basic needs, finding that overall the simple ex-post constant beta is mispriced by 0.2 (developing) to 0.3 percent (developed). It is better to use short three-year estimation windows with the market beta in developing economies and longer nine-year estimation windows with the adjusted beta in developed economies.
This research essentially aims to examine the extent to which macroeconomic factors (including interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate) have a positive influence on stock price and the level of significance for that influence. The researchers focused more on real estate and property companies that are listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, with consideration for the stock price of real estate and property companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) as the most volatile stock during those years (and its market capitalization was the largest during 2012). This study finds that interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP growth rate, as composite variables, have a significant influence on stock price. A partial test revealed that interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate have significance on stock price, while GDP growth rate is found to be nonsignificant.
We examine market response to changes in the annual “Dogs of the Dow” (DOD) portfolio. Specifically, we explore stock prices and trading volumes of the Dow stocks that are newly included into or excluded from the DOD portfolio. Although the historical performance of this popular dividend-driven investment strategy is subject to debate, our study focuses on investigating Harris and Gurel’s (1986) “noninformation-motivated demand shifts” in the sample of DOD additions and deletions. Utilizing standard event study methodology over the period 1996–2016, we find evidence that a Dow stock experiences a significant but temporary increase (decrease) in price when it is newly included into (excluded from) the DOD portfolio. Price reversals occur within one week of the reconstitutions. We also find that trading volumes temporarily increase following both index additions and deletions. The results support the price-pressure hypothesis as the DOD reconstitutions do not generally convey new information.
This chapter examines the efficiency of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), Inc., electricity exchange following its major expansion in terms of market participants and geographic scope in 2014. Specifically, hourly day-ahead (forward) and real-time (spot) prices from 2014 to 2016 reveal that forward premiums are prevalent despite the increase in market size. Furthermore, these forward premiums do not adhere to Bessembinder and Lemmon’s (2002) commonly used general equilibrium model for electricity forward premia. A technical trading rule based on the relationship between day-ahead prices across hubs that was found to be profitable prior to MISO’s expansion still produces economically and statistically significant returns after the exchange’s growth.
This chapter is a case study of the valuation of voting rights in France and Italy. New regulations, France’s “Florange Law” as well as Italian Legislative Decree 91/2014, have created additional voting rights attached to the existing shares of long-term shareholders. The chapter tests whether stock price evolution is consistent with the valuation of voting rights as per existing research.
Results show that stock prices of the float do not factor in the dilution created by loyalty voting rights. The chapter argues that the dilutive effect of the new regulations has a negative impact on stock valuation, but that this is more than offset by taking into account real options. These results address the concern that the new policies would depress stock valuation in France and Italy.
This study aims to undertake the evaluation and examination of the productivity change of the Egyptian banking sector. Using a novel data set covering 14 banks operating in the Egyptian market from 1997 to 2013. We use a nonparametric approach (based on data envelopment analysis (DEA)) to investigate the productivity change in the Egyptian banking sector. Input-oriented Malmquist indices of productivity change are estimated with DEA to measure total factor productivity (TFP) change. The TFP changes are decomposed into the product of technological change and technical efficiency change (catch-up). In the second stage, we study potential determinants of productivity change using a regression model. We find that the Egyptian banking sector as a whole shows a productivity regress of 0.9% per year, mainly due to the technological improvements. The estimated regression model identifies some variables that significantly influence the productivity of banks in Egypt. The banks with higher loan to deposit ratio and higher returns on equity have higher productivity growth reflecting on their strong strategic and managerial skills. The size of a bank seems to be associated with an increase in productivity. The maturity of a bank (measured by age) is associated with higher productivity. The NIM and NIETA variables do not seem to be affecting the productivity of banks. Surprisingly, our results reveal that the financial crisis was negatively and statistically insignificant, hence it had no effect on the Egyptian banks.
This study investigates the relationship between financial inclusion (FI) and banks’ performance in the economy of Jordan using annual data of 13 commercial banks from 2009 to 2014. Performance is measured by gross income and return on assets (ROA) of these banks. To ensure the robustness of our results, we used six different measures of FI. These include credits for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), deposits for SMEs, number of ATMs, number of ATM services, number of credit cards, and new services. We found a significant impact of FI on ‘ performance when measured by gross income, and ROA, although our study displays different results when considering the effect of FI variables separately. Thus, FI contributes to enhance the banks’ performance. Therefore, the banks should devote more resources to increase FI as it benefits their profitability.
This research uses public information and represents an analysis of how the capital markets will be considered as an alternative for the microfinance entities in order to obtain better interest rates and new financial alternatives (diversify their capital structure) as well as develop their corporate governance (Bolaños et al., 2014). Peru has been one of the fastest growing Latin American countries in recent years. In microfinance, Peru has achieved considerable growth over time. According to the Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) and Coporación Andina de Fomento (CAF), Peru is a country with the best conditions for microfinance in region of Latin America and the Caribbean. This is reflected, in part, by a larger portfolio of microfinance loans and the best business environment in the region (IDB, 2010). We start by reviewing the history of this industry for the period 2009–2013. This overview will facilitate an understanding of this industry, its development, and the main participants in this sector; then we proceed by exploring the market structure, its nature, its characteristics, and the supply and demand forces, including the competitors and the size of the Peruvian financial sector. Finally, we focus on the process followed by Caja Municipal de Huancayo (CMAC) in order to list bonds and commercial liabilities on the Lima Stock Exchange, taking into consideration the regulation process; finally, the results of the operation are presented, This review will give a better understanding about the process of development for microfinance entities in a volatile macroeconomic context.
Microfinance plays a crucial role to reduce the poverty in developing countries. For that reason, the effectiveness of microfinance institutions (MFIs) is widely investigated in the literature. This study examines the levels of efficiency of MFIs in Vietnam and their determinants. The research, then, evaluates the relationship between MFIs’ efficiency and poverty reduction. Data are mainly taken from the MIX market website and other empirical researches. Regarding the methodology, two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to estimate MFIs’ efficiency scores in Vietnam and their determinants, while meta-analysis and statistic descriptions are employed to examine the relationship between MFIs’ efficiency and poverty reduction. The findings show that technical efficiency (TE) of MFIs in Vietnam is considerably high with the average TE score and efficiency of scale being 85.5% and 94.7%, respectively. Size, age, outreach, and market target of MFIs are found not to be determinants of efficiency, while capital structure is. Also, many researches confirm the impact of MFIs’ efficiency to poverty reduction. However, the relationship is different between countries because of particular characteristics and operational mechanisms.
The recent financial crisis triggered the greatest recession since the 1930s and had a devastating impact on households’ wealth and on their capacity to reduce their indebtedness. In the aftermath, it became clear that there is significant room for improvement in property risk management. While there has been innovation in the management of corporate finance risk, real estate has lagged behind. Now is the time to expand the range of tools available for hedging households’ risks and, thus, to advance the democratization of finance. Property equity represents the major asset in households’ portfolios in developed and undeveloped countries. The present paper analyzes a set of potential innovations in real estate risk management, such as price level-adjusted mortgages, property derivatives, and home equity value insurance. Financial institutions, households, and governments should work together to improve the performance of the financial instruments available and, thus, to help mitigate the worst impacts of economic cycles.
Change of leadership is a big and important incident in the life of a company. As important as it is for the company, it is equally a difficult decision to make for the board of directors. Most of the big companies have a committee dedicated toward laying out a succession plan of the existing chief executive officer (CEO). The big dilemma, however, is whether to appoint someone from within the company and let him or her lead as he or she has been associated with the company and knows the internal dynamics better or to induct some outsider and take advantage of his or her expertise/reputation in the market. The balance appears lopsided when the result of this chapter is perused. Companies on an average seem to reap more benefits if an existing executive is promoted to the office of CEO rather than hiring an outsider. The benefits which are talked here from promoting insiders are indirect ones and do not have a direct bearing with the finances of the company. As shown by the results that insiders are more likely to continue with the company for a longer duration as the CEO as well as not as the CEO which defers the hiring and firing costs (screening candidates, conducting interviews, huge severance packages, golden parachutes, etc., are the costs referred to) for a longer period. Other benefits arising from insider CEOs are upfront awareness about the company’s work culture, production/service capacity, efficiency, strategies followed till date, etc., which gives him or her a head start compared to an outsider.
Academic institutions are under increasing pressure to show that their research output has impact. As this concept is easier to quantify in science-based disciplines, this chapter reviews how one interprets what “impact” is in finance. It suggests how best to incorporate it into academic research through the use of a simple to understand impact ratio. It provides an overview of the leading academic publications and their role in this process. It asks how impact within finance is understood, appreciated and subject to critique. It concludes that academics should demonstrate how they can facilitate the development of capital markets through evidence-based policy and enhancing capital market efficiency.
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- Research in Finance
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- Emerald Publishing Limited
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