Mobile growth

Work Study

ISSN: 0043-8022

Article publication date: 1 June 2000




(2000), "Mobile growth", Work Study, Vol. 49 No. 3.



Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2000, MCB UP Limited

Mobile growth

Mobile growth

Keywords: Communication, telecommunications, Mobile communications

According to the Strategis Group's latest Western European Cellular/3G Markets 2000 study, by 2007, a staggering 318.6 million new connections will be added. As a result, the average cellular penetration will grow from 32.5 per cent at the end of 1999 (148.9 million connections) to a mature 85 per cent by the end of 2007 (413 million). In a second report released, Eastern European Cellular/3G Markets 2000, the Strategis Group revealed that the cellular connections market in Eastern Europe will reach a projected total of 80 million, 51 per cent of which will be accounted for by the Russian and Polish markets alone.

Much of this anticipated growth can be attributed to:

  • region-wide licensing of additional networks, particularly GSM 1800;

  • widespread adoption of prepaid pricing schemes;

  • the introduction of cheap dual-band handsets which enable operators to deploy GSM 1800 in capacity constrained urban regions and still rely on GSM 900 for rural areas;

  • end-users beginning to take advantage additional subscriptions, one for business the other for private use, on the same handset;

  • operators implementing 2G+ and/or 3G technologies to offer wireless Internet access;

  • devices such as Wireless Application Protocol (WAP)-ready handsets, personal digital;

  • assistants (PDA) and laptops.

"All of these developments will contribute to a rising trend in multiple subscriptions per user", said the Strategis Group's European director, Jake Saunders. "People will be able to work and play with greater flexibility and control than ever before. Individuals can use separate work and personal phone numbers on the same handset to screen out the calls they do or do not want to receive, or keep track of their e-mails on the move". As a result of these lifestyle trends, it becomes necessary to analyze the market in terms of cellular "connections" rather than cellular "subscribers".

At the end of 1999, Italy had the largest market share of European cellular connections at 19.3 per cent, followed by the UK and Germany with 14.4 per cent and 13.8 per cent, respectively. By 2007, Germany is expected to take the prime position owing to a significantly larger connections base (19.4 per cent), while the market shares of the other top three markets, Italy (14.7 per cent), the UK (14.4 per cent) and France (13 per cent) will be squeezed by the fact that the connections base in many of the smaller markets will continue to grow at a healthy rate. Net cellular subscriber growth in the future will be most marked within those countries that possess the largest number of end-users. As a result, the Polish and Russian markets will grow by a total of 18.9 million and 18.4 million new connections, respectively, between 1999 and 2007, inclusive. As a result of the increasing market growth, the overall population penetration rate for Eastern Europe will reach 23 per cent.

European Cellular/3G Markets 2000 is the eighth study that the Strategis Group has compiled on Western Europe and is the most complete and concise analysis of the market available to date. With an in-depth breakdown of 22 Western European countries, the Strategis Group provides the following information for each:

  • telecommunications administration and regulation;

  • telephony infrastructure;

  • cellular market licensing and regulation;

  • cellular network infrastructure and coverage;

  • cellular connections trends;

  • cellular distribution, pricing, and end-user profiles;

  • cellular connections projections to 2007;

  • cellular service revenue projections to 2007;

  • cellular telephone equipment trends and projections to 2007;

  • third generation technology projections to 2007.

The Strategis Group, an EDR (e-data resources) company - with offices in Washington DC, London, and Singapore - publishes in-depth industry research reports, provides customized consulting services, and supplies continuous information solutions to the cable TV, satellite, Internet, competitive telephony, broadband, and wireless communications industries. The combined Eastern and Western European Cellular/3G Markets 2000 report is available in electronic and print formats. For sales enquiries regarding this report or other Strategis Group services please contact Jamie Moss on Tel: +44 171 363 5600; Fax: +44 171 363 5610; E-mail: In the USA, enquiries can be directed to an account executive at: Tel: +1 202 530 7500; Fax: +1 202 530 7550; E-mail

Related articles