Single currency will succeed, economists predict

Citation

(1998), "Single currency will succeed, economists predict", European Business Review, Vol. 98 No. 6. https://doi.org/10.1108/ebr.1998.05498fab.005

Single currency will succeed, economists predict

Single currency will succeed, economists predict

Britain set to join around 2002

The new European single currency is set for a successful start, according to a survey of senior economists to be published in July of this year.

A large majority of those surveyed thought Britain should join sometime between 2001 and 2003. A majority thought that EMU would have "a liberalising influence" on the European economy.

These are the main findings of fourth survey of the European Movement's Economists Panel. Eleven respected academic, city, and corporate economists have taken part in this survey.

On the question of the likely success of EMU, all but one (Patrick Millford) of those surveyed think that EMU will last and most think that it will deliver economic benefits to the euro-zone. The extent of this economic success will depend on Europe's ability to deliver further economic reforms.

Three of the economists surveyed think that Britain should join EMU as soon as possible, with one arguing that Britain should not join for the foreseeable future. The consensus is that Britain should join sometime between 2001 and 2003. Two of those surveyed give no date, with Paul Donovan arguing that three reforms are necessary before Britain should join.

Despite the wrangling over the appointment of the president of the European Central Bank, a large majority of those surveyed expect the ECB to be highly independent. According to one (Christopher Huhne) "the ECB will be a more credible bulwark against inflation than the Federal Reserve Board".

Stephen Woodard, director of the European Movement, said:

This survey demonstrates once again the growing belief that the single currency will be a success, and will help to deliver economic benefits to the euro-zone.

Those people who are campaigning against the single currency need to face up to reality: the single currency is happening, it is set to succeed, and Britain will be better off if we join.

For more information contact Rebecca Hoar. Tel: 0171 222 3924.