Manpower Planning in the Face of Uncertainty

Abstract

The role of uncertainty in manpower planning is discussed and illustrated by reference to manpower planning in the Civil Service. The nature of the planning process is described, and an account given of the principal statistical methods employed. Uncertainty is classified in terms of random error, specification error, estimation error and data error. Strategies for containing error are discussed, and examples used to illustrate the relative importance of each type. Parameter specification error is usually dominant, and experience suggests that sensitivity analysis is the most practical way of dealing with it. The mutually‐dependent roles of statistician and manager in the process of working towards effective decisions, and the importance of a flexible and continuous planning process which can adapt to the unexpected, are both stressed.

Citation

Bartholomew, D.J., Hopes, R.F.A. and Smith, A.R. (1976), "Manpower Planning in the Face of Uncertainty", Personnel Review, Vol. 5 No. 3, pp. 5-17. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb055311