Origin of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: manufacturing predictions preceding Industrie 4.0

Abstract

Purpose

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is a prominent area of interest in the field of manufacturing that is bringing about revolutionary changes. In this study, the authors sought to determine whether professionals in academia or industry could have predicted the composition of advanced technologies associated with Industry 4.0 before Germany's Industrie 4.0 policy announcement. The purpose of this paper is to use the process for identifying technologies that can be included in industrial policy to improve national competitiveness in manufacturing.

Design/methodology/approach

Relevant documented research from 2000 to 2012 was identified and captured using a systematic literature review. The significant technological advancements during this period were analyzed to determine how technological innovations may have affected predictions about the future of manufacturing. The identified predictions were analyzed using an open-source natural language processing code that clustered relevant topics in the predictions that indicated common themes. The results were then compared to the ideas within “Industry 5.0”.

Findings

The results of this study showed that an aggregate analysis of manufacturing predictions would have preemptively revealed the Fourth Industrial Revolution and could have been used to inform industrial policy that could accelerate technology adoption. Also, contrary to popular belief, the popular Industry 5.0 is a sematic exemplification of a concept already embedded within the origins of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Practical implications

By examining the provenance of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, lessons are learned that bring light to Industry 4.0 and the measures that can be taken to enable the advancements that it brings. The results of this study show that is would be wise for government policymakers to enact programs that monitor the manufacturing predictions coming out of academia and to analyze them aggregately using natural language processing as a means to identify the next evolutions and revolutions and to mobilize policymakers to enhance outcomes of enacting policy.

Originality/value

Despite high hopes for the realization of Industry 4.0, there has been little discussion about the technological innovations and events that occurred to enable it. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that has determined that an aggregate analysis of manufacturing predictions would have preemptively revealed the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The success of the methodology used in this study has theoretical implications in support of natural language processing (NLP) being used to inform national policy.

Citation

Ledford, A.B., Hyre, A., Harris, G., Purdy, G. and Hedberg Jr, T. (2024), "Origin of the Fourth Industrial Revolution: manufacturing predictions preceding Industrie 4.0", Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-03-2023-0040