Optimizing demand forecasting for business events tourism: a comparative analysis of cutting-edge models

Abstract

Purpose

Given the unique nature of business events tourism, this paper evaluates the forecasting performance of various models using search query data (SQD) to forecast convention attendance.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses monthly and quarterly business event attendance data from both the U.S. (Las Vegas) and China (Macau) markets. Using SQD as the input, we evaluated and compared the cutting-edge forecasting models including Prophet and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).

Findings

The study reveals that Prophet outperforms complex neural network models in forecasting business event tourism demand. Keywords related to convention facilities, conventions or exhibitions, and transportation are proven to be useful in forecasting business travel demand.

Practical implications

Prophet is an accessible forecasting model for event-tourism practitioners, especially useful in the volatile business event tourism sector. Using verified search keywords in models helps understand traveler motivations and aids event planning.

Originality/value

Our study is among the first to empirically evaluate the performance of forecasting models for business travel demand. In comparison with other mainstream forecasting models, our study extends the scope to examine both the U.S. and Chinese markets.

Citation

Jung, S., Zhang, R.Y., Chen, Y. and Joe, S. (2024), "Optimizing demand forecasting for business events tourism: a comparative analysis of cutting-edge models", Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Insights, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHTI-12-2023-0960