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A possible metric for assessing self-efficacy toward postulated futures

Seongwon Park (Science and Technology Policy Institute, Sejong, Republic of Korea)


ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 12 March 2018




This paper raises a question of how to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity. Among the various assessments of foresight activity, the author explores how to develop and assess an individual’s abilities in relation to foresight activity. More specifically, the author suggests a possible metric for assessing how foresight activity can help individuals cultivate self-efficacy toward postulated futures. This paper aims to propose that researchers and practitioners working in foresight can leverage the concept of self-efficacy toward futures to develop a method of evaluating foresight activities on an individual level.


To assess the concept of self-efficacy toward futures, this research identifies the factors that could create a possible metric of self-efficacy with respect to various futures on an individual level. For this study, citizens living in Korea participated in a futures studies program, where the author measured and analyzed to what extent participatory foresight activities could help these individuals perceive their own self-efficacy toward futures. The changes in the participants’ attitudes were measured by conducting the survey before and after the program.


Based on the literature review and a survey, the author crafted a potential self-efficacy in relation to a scale of futures, which consists of four subscales: an ability to shape new meanings, an ability to challenge the status quo, an ability to make a decision and put it into action and an ability to learn something new by cooperating with others. These abilities are believed to be relevant elements to prepare for, adapt to and evolve with social changes. This paper also uses the possible metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity in Korea and argues that foresight activity helps Korean individuals perceive self-efficacy toward postulated futures.


Researchers attempted to answer the question of what foresight activities are generally useful to laypersons. The author proposes that perceiving self-efficacy toward futures is one of the efficacies that foresight pursues. The author endeavors to create a metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight attempts to identify which capabilities can be developed through participation in foresight activities.



Park, S. (2018), "A possible metric for assessing self-efficacy toward postulated futures", Foresight, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 50-67.



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