What Chance to Profit?

Abstract

Discusses the uncertainty of marketing and tries to relate this to marketing people who act as if uncertainty does not exist. Gives an example of: an existing brand in a stagnant market; an existing brand in an existing market; and a new brand in an increasing market. Analyses a reasonably simple computer program 'Call‐Risk' asking the computer to do a lot of calculating and uses the Monte Carlo principle for supplies of data. Tabulates the results and discusses them in depth, and develops a five‐year plan, which is also tabulated. Adopts simple plans and illustrates these also. Concludes that most plans are not really good enough but the addition of uncertainty, and risk analysis, gives improved plans with better chances to be in line with reality.

Citation

Kalff, H. (1980), "What Chance to Profit?", European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 14 No. 8, pp. 458-465. https://doi.org/10.1108/EUM0000000004921