The impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's grain output: Regional and crop perspective
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's (PRC) grain output using rural household survey data. The paper highlights the regional differences of impacts by estimating output elasticities (with respect to climate change) for different grain crops and different regions.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses production function to investigate the responses of grain output to climate variables as well as other traditional input variables. The use of production function approach allows us to do away with the competitive land market assumption as required in the Ricardian approach. The paper will use interaction terms of climate variables and regional dummies to capture the regional differences of climate change impact on grain crops.
Findings
The results indicate that the overall negative climate impacts on the PRC's grain output range from −0.31 to −2.69 percent in 2030 and from −1.93 to −3.07 percent in 2050, under different emission scenarios. The impacts, however, differ substantially for different grain crops and different regions.
Originality/value
This paper addresses the limitations of existing literature by highlighting regional differences and crop varieties using the most recent nationwide rural household survey data. The results indicate pronounced regional differences and crop differences in the impacts of climate changes on PRC's grain output.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank Jing Cui and Yongwei Cui for their assistance in data processing and the Research Center for the Rural Economy (RCRE) at the PRC's Ministry of Agriculture for providing the rural household survey data. Helpful comments from participants in various group discussions organized by ADB are also fully appreciated. This paper is part of the research work funded by ADB (Project Number: 43068).
Citation
Xin, X., Lin, T., Liu, X., Wan, G. and Zhang, Y. (2013), "The impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's grain output: Regional and crop perspective", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 434-458. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-03-2013-0049
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2013, Emerald Group Publishing Limited