Enablers of new business density: a comparison between developed and developing countries using deep learning and explainable AI

Abstract

Purpose

New business density (NBD) is the ratio of the number of newly registered liability corporations to the working-age population per year. NBD is critical to assessing a country's business environment. The present work endeavors to discover and gauge the contribution of 28 potential socio-economic enablers of NBD for 2006–2021 across developed and developing economies separately and to make a comparative assessment between those two regions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using World Bank data, the study first performs exploratory data analysis (EDA). Then, it deploys a deep learning (DL)-based regression framework by utilizing a deep neural network (DNN) to perform predictive modeling of NBD for developed and developing nations. Subsequently, we use two explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques, Shapley values and a partial dependence plot, to unveil the influence patterns of chosen enablers. Finally, the results from the DL method are validated with the explainable boosting machine (EBM) method.

Findings

This research analyzes the role of 28 potential socio-economic enablers of NBD in developed and developing countries. This research finds that the NBD in developed countries is predominantly governed by the contribution of manufacturing and service sectors to GDP. In contrast, the propensity for research and development and ease of doing business control the NBD of developing nations. The research findings also indicate four common enablers – business disclosure, ease of doing business, employment in industry and startup procedures for developed and developing countries.

Practical implications

NBD is directly linked to any nation's economic affairs. Therefore, assessing the NBD enablers is of paramount significance for channelizing capital for new business formation. It will guide investment firms and entrepreneurs in discovering the factors that significantly impact the NBD dynamics across different regions of the globe. Entrepreneurs fraught with inevitable market uncertainties while developing a new idea into a successful new business can momentously benefit from the awareness of crucial NBD enablers, which can serve as a basis for business risk assessment.

Originality/value

DL-based regression framework simultaneously caters to successful predictive modeling and model explanation for practical insights about NBD at the global level. It overcomes the limitations in the present literature that assume the NBD is country- and industry-specific, and factors of the NBD cannot be generalized globally. With DL-based regression and XAI methods, we prove our research hypothesis that NBD can be effectively assessed and compared with the help of global macro-level indicators. This research justifies the robustness of the findings by using the socio-economic data from the renowned data repository of the World Bank and by implementing the DL modeling with validation through the EBM method.

Citation

Pramanik, P., Jana, R.K. and Ghosh, I. (2024), "Enablers of new business density: a comparison between developed and developing countries using deep learning and explainable AI", Benchmarking: An International Journal, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-11-2023-0830