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Forecasting renewable energy production in the US

Tugrul Daim (Associate Professor at Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA)
Georgina Harell (PhD Student at Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA)
Liliya Hogaboam (PhD Student at Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 1 June 2012

2885

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to present a forecast for renewable energy production in the USA. Growth curves are used to conduct the forecasts.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis is based upon a literature review, supplemented by collection of secondary data. The study then focuses on applying the Pearl growth curve.

Findings

The authors' results show that biomass energy production is growing the fastest followed by geothermal and wind. Additionally, the forecast for solar energy production shows little to no growth over the next two decades.

Research limitations/implications

If the US government hopes to achieve its goals in renewable energy, considerable funding and incentives will have to be put forth to accelerate the growth of renewable energy. Since the biomass technology is already growing nicely it makes sense to put the additional resources behind the other three technologies to close the 10.3 percent gap being forecasted. The government also needs to put more funding into dual renewable plants such as wind or solar combines with pumped hydro, this will ensure environmental and reliability are both maintained. Finally, for renewable energies to be competitive in the long term, considerable research needs to go into driving down the cost so there is not a need for subsidies.

Originality/value

This study provides value in providing a forecast for expected future growth for renewable energy sources.

Keywords

Citation

Daim, T., Harell, G. and Hogaboam, L. (2012), "Forecasting renewable energy production in the US", Foresight, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 225-241. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681211239764

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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