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Towards long‐term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100

Heidi Auvinen (Research Scientist in the Department of Transport and Logistics Systems at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland)
Anu Tuominen (Senior Scientist at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland)
Toni Ahlqvist (Senior Scientist in the Department of Foresight and Socio‐technical Change at VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Turku, Finland)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 1 June 2012

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long‐term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.

Design/methodology/approach

The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long‐term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.

Findings

A three‐step vision building process for long‐term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full‐scale strategy‐driven visions.

Originality/value

Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short‐ to medium‐term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long‐term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.

Keywords

Citation

Auvinen, H., Tuominen, A. and Ahlqvist, T. (2012), "Towards long‐term foresight for transport: envisioning the Finnish transport system in 2100", Foresight, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 191-206. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681211239746

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2012, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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