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Time Series Forecasting Techniques: Short‐term Planning in Tourism

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management

ISSN: 0959-6119

Publication date: 1 April 1992

Abstract

Planning, both “operational” and “strategic”, relies on accurate forecasting. Planning in tourism is no less dependent on accurate forecasts. However, tourism demand forecasting has been dominated by the application of regression/econometric techniques. Past studies on the forecasting accuracy of econometric/regression models suggest that forecasts generated by these models are not necessarily superior to forecasts generated by simple time series techniques. Seven time series forecasting techniques were used to generate forecasts of international tourist arrivals from Thailand to Hong Kong. The results confirm that simple techniques may be just as accurate and often more time‐and cost‐effective than more complex ones. Practitioners in the tourism industry may confidently use any of the forecasting techniques demonstrated here for their short‐term planning activities.

Keywords

Citation

Athiyaman, A. and Robertson, R.W. (1992), "Time Series Forecasting Techniques: Short‐term Planning in Tourism", International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, Vol. 4 No. 4. https://doi.org/10.1108/09596119210018864

Publisher

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MCB UP Ltd

Copyright © 1992, MCB UP Limited