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Prospects for the euro-area to end-2023

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2023

Tourism and other customer-facing sectors are growing solidly even though above-target inflation is squeezing disposable incomes. However, strong services activity is keeping core…

Morocco will struggle to lift growth rates

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MOROCCO

This is below the medium-term target of average annual real GDP growth of 6%, with economic performance largely affected by poor agricultural harvests. There was a modest recovery…

Egypt will face multiple risks in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

This will make for a challenging start of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s third term, after he is inevitably re-elected in December this year. Meanwhile, the government will also…

Russian household consumption is recovering slowly

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RUSSIA

This was the first acceleration after twelve consecutive declines and was driven by an 11% rise in the prices of services. The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s consumers to…

Risks threaten optimistic Greek growth forecasts

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GREECE

After the 2021-22 post-pandemic rebound, growth is stabilising at around 2%. Barring new external shocks, it is expected to remain at this level in the coming years. Improved…

Prospects for the euro-area in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

GDP contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in July-September, according to updated estimates from Eurostat this month, having grown by 0.2% in the second quarter and not at all in…

Gaza war will hit non-oil Middle East economies hard

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MIDDLE EAST

The conflict will damage the economic prospects of Israel, Egypt and Jordan, even without a major regional escalation. The Gulf Arab states, Iraq and Algeria will benefit from the…

Laos is at growing risk of sovereign debt default

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LAOS

According to a debt sustainability analysis published by the IMF in May, Laos is in debt distress. Years of rapid growth in borrowing to fund infrastructure development…

Cuban discontent will be muted despite economic woes

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CUBA

At the same time, private businesses have been allowed to import as never before. New privately owned shops caters to those with hard currency, but for most people the economic…

Jordan’s stalled economy risks rising social tensions

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JORDAN

The economy faces chronic problems of low growth, joblessness and declining living standards, resulting in periodic protests. Its heavy dependence on foreign aid, especially from…