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Beijing-Washington ties will be competition-based

Location:

CHINA/UNITED STATES

Despite some positive short-term outcomes, the two sides’ read-outs reflect the structural nature of their competition and the limits that this places on cooperation.

US allies will worry about Trump's Asia policies

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UNITED STATES

Democrats and Republicans largely share the assessment that China poses the greatest challenge to US interests globally. The Biden administration retained Trump’s strong tariff…

Seoul and Tokyo thaw promises multiple benefits

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SOUTH KOREA/JAPAN

The removal of politically motivated restrictions by both sides has set the stage for the expansion of bilateral trade and investment and for cooperation in a number of areas.

Mexico will be a key player in US-China trade tensions

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MEXICO

However, it appears to have done so in no small part due to geopolitics rather than the strength of its own economy. Chinese investments and Mexican imports of Chinese products…

Diamond sanctions will have a modest impact on Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

The ban will be extended by the end of the year to include diamonds polished in third countries, lab-grown diamonds, as well as jewellery and watches containing diamonds. The new…

Ukrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on

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UKRAINE

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

The entwining of tariffs and US politics will continue

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UNITED STATES

With trade policy, particularly towards China, likely to have an unusually high-profile role in this year’s presidential election, there is a growing awareness of the extent to…

Ukraine's grain dispute is unlikely to end soon

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UKRAINE

UKRAINE: Grain dispute is unlikely to end soon

Prospects for China to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Relations with the United States reached a low point after a Chinese-owned balloon was detected in US airspace, but high-level contact resumed this month with a visit to Beijing…