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Croatia will likely shift further to the right

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CROATIA

The HDZ has begun preliminary coalition talks with the far-right Homeland Movement, which finished in third place. The election has exacerbated deep tensions between Prime…

Cape Verde: Reform agenda may face pushback

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CAPE VERDE

The elections are likely to be organised in November. The MpD currently holds 14 of 22 municipalities. The elections will take place at a moment when the government is set to take…

El Salvador poverty will create problems for Bukele

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EL SALVADOR

President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…

Elections could prove awkward for Maldives president

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MALDIVES

The two parties associated with him are currently in the minority in the unicameral legislature. Muizzu came to power after winning last year’s presidential race. He was a…

Manama will struggle to vary its investor offering

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BAHRAIN

The Economic Development Board (EDB), the country’s investment promotion agency, announced in March that its ‘golden licence’ scheme of incentives for local and foreign investors…

Ecuador Mexican embassy raid is likely to backfire

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ECUADOR

Glas has been convicted of corruption and was subject to a preventive arrest warrant when he sought political asylum at the embassy in December. The raid has been condemned by…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

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GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Slow growth may hit trust in Colombia’s government

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COLOMBIA

Government spending levels depend on those of individual ministries, some of which spent remarkably little last year, raising questions about budgetary decision-making. Recent…

Sri Lanka’s leader looks set for tough poll fight

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SRI LANKA

According to the constitution, the presidential contest must take place in September-October, but parliamentary elections are not due until 2025. President Ranil Wickremesinghe…

Thai search for investors in land bridge will be tough

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THAILAND

The road-and-rail project, which could end up costing around USD30bn, would link deep-water ports on either side of the Kra Isthmus, in effect connecting the Andaman Sea and the…