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Hungarian Fidesz illiberalism will defy EU criticism

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HUNGARY

The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the…

Youngkin's Virginia victory will be hard to replicate

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UNITED STATES

There has been speculation that Youngkin, who generated support from both from former President Donald Trump's camp and moderate Republicans as well as some swing voters last…

Gap between France’s Macron and Le Pen is narrowing

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FRANCE

Nevertheless, Le Pen remains the most serious threat to President Emmanuel Macron's hopes for re-election in 2022. She stands above him in some national polls, reflecting her…

Egypt’s military will entrench control of public life

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EGYPT

The most notable change institutionalises the control by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) over officers’ participation in elections; another extends the military’s…

A DeSantis bid for US president looks more likely

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UNITED STATES

DeSantis is a leading, if undeclared, contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. He has built a strong base among voters and legislators in Florida that…

Milei Argentina plans raise more doubt than certainty

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ARGENTINA

LLA has capitalised on growing discontent with politics after over a decade of economic stagnation, high inflation and increasing poverty. Milei’s discourse against what he calls…

Poor productivity will weigh on Mexico’s GDP growth

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MEXICO

While the crisis damaged the economy, compounded by the lack of fiscal response, Mexico has suffered from sluggish growth for the last four decades. Productivity, on average, has…

Prospects for US politics to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

The election comes as the country grapples with COVID-19 and its severe economic fallout, and race and justice-based protests in many urban centres.