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Risks and opportunities 2019: The biggest risks

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INT

The contest between China and the United States will shape many of the key risks in 2019

Near- and friend-shoring markedly alter trade flows

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INT

The United States, Europe and Japan are trading more together and less with China, which is trading more with Russia

China-US intellectual property tension will intensify

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INT

The United States and China are at opposite ends of the intellectual property spectrum -- setting the scene for friction

The world economic downturn will be mild but prolonged

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INT

Core CPI is easing towards 2% official targets in major nations, but not fast enough for rate cuts to boost 2024 growth

Public-sector issuance aids ESG investment regulation

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INTERNATIONAL

Self-labelled AUM invested sustainably totalled USD18.4tn in 2021, 70% in Europe and 24% in the United States

Deaths of despair could hinder the economic recovery

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INT

Social isolation and economic uncertainties arising from COVID-19 lockdowns could prompt many more deaths of despair

Ambiguous norms encourage more daring cyberattacks

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INT

The harmful effects of cyberattacks may increase as states test the boundaries of accepted norms in cyberspace

Demography and past austerity raise the COVID-19 risks

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INT

COVID-19 particularly threatens the elderly; ageing populations and years of post-crisis austerity leave nations at risk

Cheap oil will persist despite international talks

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MENA

Beyond the hype, OPEC and Russia will struggle to agree an output freeze

Reducing evasion is key as business taxes race lower

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INT

President-elect Donald Trump aims to "cut business taxes massively" as the US corporate tax rate is the G20's highest