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South-east Asia may align more with China in near term

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

A key finding is that 50.5% of respondents would pick China if forced to take sides in US-Chinese rivalry, up from 38.9% in 2023. China continues to be regarded as the most…

IPEF failure will hurt US firms on digital trade

Location:

UNITED STATES

Although it does not have the force of law, the IPEF Supply Chain Agreement, along with the associated IPEF Critical Minerals Dialogue, is expected to strengthen chains of…

Global AI regulations will diverge

Location:

INT

Despite a strong Chinese push on AI innovation, Beijing’s regulatory approach to AI sharply contrasts with the approaches of Western digital economies, notably the United States…

US trade exposure to China will remain high

Location:

CHINA/UNITED STATES

In January-November, imports of Chinese goods dropped more than 20% year-on-year. China’s share of total US imports plunged to 13.9% from 16.7% in the same period in 2022, while…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

Location:

CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Tokyo and Washington will step up defence cooperation

Location:

JAPAN/US

Kishida and Biden hailed a historic upgrade in defence ties and announced a record volume of around 70 agreements, spanning various sectors.

Mexico will be a key player in US-China trade tensions

Location:

MEXICO

However, it appears to have done so in no small part due to geopolitics rather than the strength of its own economy. Chinese investments and Mexican imports of Chinese products…

Parallel imports continue to support Russia’s economy

Location:

RUSSIA

Parallel imports have played a crucial role in securing the supply of goods for the Russian economy. The creation and management of parallel import channels is now an important…

US allies will worry about Trump's Asia policies

Location:

UNITED STATES

Democrats and Republicans largely share the assessment that China poses the greatest challenge to US interests globally. The Biden administration retained Trump’s strong tariff…

Thailand will pursue a more proactive foreign policy

Location:

THAILAND

Thailand is devoting more attention to foreign policy under Srettha. The fallout from the 2006 and 2014 coups adversely affected its foreign relations, but it retains an important…