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Further South African interest rate cuts are unlikely

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

South African inflation dynamics.

Economic success will elude Macri in Argentina

Location:

ARGENTINA

The 2018 currency crisis left the economy in one of the deepest downturns of the last decade, repeating the cyclical pattern in place since 2011 of one year of growth followed by…

Argentine default fears will not subside this year

Location:

ARGENTINA

Despite exchange rate stabilisation in the last two months, the country risk premium had remained above 800 basis points since early April, reaching a peak of 1,008 on June 3…

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

Location:

CENTRAL EUROPE

This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in…

ECB will extend QE programme on December 3

Location:

EURO-AREA

At a press conference after the previous meeting on October 22, ECB President Mario Draghi was clear that downside risks to the inflation outlook might lead to a reassessment at…

Sluggish Emerging Europe credit growth is due to NPLs

Location:

EUROPE

An NPL overhang will crimp credit growth in Emerging Europe.

Hungarian forint is increasingly vulnerable to attack

Location:

CENTRAL EUROPE

Central banks’ policy dilemmas.

Investors may be underpricing more US Fed tightening

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Financial markets.

Jackson Hole meet risks intensifying investor concerns

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

The dollar index has fallen by about 10% since early January, to its lowest since April 2016, under the strain of US President Donald Trump’s political woes and robust euro-area…