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Divided ANC undermines Ramaphosa’s capacity to govern

Location:

SOUTH AFRICA

These challenges are interlinked, and all threaten Ramaphosa’s standing over the medium term. They also influence Ramaphosa’s ability to manage an intensely divided ANC, with…

Provinces blamed for COVID third wave shortcomings

Location:

CANADA

Some of Canada’s largest provincial governments have seen their approval ratings fall in the wake of the third wave, although there has been little impact on the Liberal…

Second COVID-19 wave will test Madagascar’s Rajoelina

Location:

MADAGASCAR

However, with a second wave underway and the mining and tourism sectors -- key foreign exchange earners -- upended, he recently changed tack, authorising an immunisation programme…

Correa will be a major figure in Ecuador’s elections

Location:

ECUADOR

Precluded from running for the top job after having already served two terms, Correa has been selected as the running mate of Andres Arauz, a relatively unknown 35-year-old, who…

Virus storm will erode Hungarian government’s position

Location:

HUNGARY

Fidesz faces an election in spring 2022. The spectre of a weaker position in the EU and increased EU scrutiny on Hungary’s rule of law record could deal the party further blows…

Prospects for East Asia to end-2020

Location:

PROSPECTS 2020 H2

In different ways, all will experience significant economic damage and political consequences, ranging from the standing of incumbent leaders to changes in the regional security…

Prospects for Ukraine in 2021

Location:

PROSPECTS 2021

None is easily resolvable and President Volodymyr Zelensky's administration is not faring well. More than a year after Zelensky’s double election wins, it is increasingly apparent…

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2020

Location:

PROSPECTS H2 2020

This is helping to insulate them from immediate political pressures relating to the pandemic crisis, but their hopes for spurring long-term economic recovery depend greatly on…

Vietnam will be wary of getting too close to China

Location:

VIETNAM

Vietnam has a policy of ‘cooperation and struggle’ towards China. The two sides have robust economic ties, but there are long-standing political and cultural tensions between them.

Mass resignations reconfigure Hong Kong opposition

Location:

HONG KONG

The resignations will end the gridlock and obstructionism of the past few years, when opposition lawmakers blocked legislation supported by the government and establishment…