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INTERNATIONAL: Euro-area and US activity will diverge
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES281495
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Topical
UNITED STATES: Flash PMI supports soft landing outturn
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES282917
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
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The Fed insists that subsequent moves will depend on economic developments, but its forecast implies that, although not imminent, another 25-basis-point (bp) increase will happen…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB282113
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
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The Fed and ECB seem set to diverge, with the latter expected to cut rates in June. There is a rising prospect, bolstered by the resilient US labour market and Middle East…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286511
ISSN: 2633-304X
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UNITED STATES: Fed in tightening mode to calm core PCE
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-ES279829
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Behind this workforce expansion is higher immigration that has allowed considerably more new jobs without raising real wages. Immigration explains some of the strength in…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB286716
ISSN: 2633-304X
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This creates a clear contextual divide, ahead of consequential European Parliament, US and UK elections in 2024. The inability of the central banks to forecast inflation or growth…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284164
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
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US corporate debt default and bankruptcy stress is at its most intense for more than a decade in the face of higher interest rates, elevated inflation and a slowing economy. There…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB280733
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
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While headline inflation in the United States and the euro-area has fallen steadily, core inflation remains stubborn. The ‘last mile’ of the disinflation process will be the most…