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Tunisian transition is far from over

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TUNISIA

Some observers, and some Tunisians themselves, argue the successes so far achieved are explained by a set of factors unique to Tunisia, including: a homogeneous population; a…

Ethiopia’s shock therapy reform drive risks backlash

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ETHIOPIA

A series of far-reaching policy pronouncements by Abiy’s new government suggest a dramatic transformation is underway in Ethiopia. While implementation will be contentious and…

Ecuador’s 2024 budget will prompt mixed reactions

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ECUADOR

However, there are signs that political cooperation is beginning to crumble, which will reduce the pace of reform. A National Assembly vote later this month on the government’s…

Kenya's courts and counties expand Ruto’s challenges

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KENYA

Separately, the government is locked in a battle with county administrations that are demanding increased funds. Together, devolution and a resolute judiciary are complicating…

Political crisis will weigh on Peru's economic outlook

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PERU

Growth was lower than originally anticipated, with a pronounced slowdown in the last quarter. The post-COVID-19 rebound in 2021 appears to have lost momentum. Export performance…

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2020

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PROSPECTS H2 2020

This is helping to insulate them from immediate political pressures relating to the pandemic crisis, but their hopes for spurring long-term economic recovery depend greatly on…

Ecuador deal will help long-term debt sustainability

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ECUADOR

COVID-19 lockdown measures and low oil prices are weighing on the economy, which the IMF expects to contract by 6.7% this year. According to the IMF, Ecuador’s gross financing…

Poor Nigerian state finances portend political clashes

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NIGERIA

Nigerian state finances.

Belarusian need for Russia will limit angry disputes

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BELARUS/RUSSIA

Belarus is defying Russia with varying success. It has scored a win by securing aircraft purchases rather than handing over air bases, but is hamstrung by oil and gas disputes…

Latin America risks another lost decade

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LATIN AMERICA

The health crisis, national lockdowns and a global recession have combined to create a difficult environment in Latin America, while governments’ responses to the pandemic have…