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Russia's integration of Ukrainian lands will be patchy

Location:

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Annexation has not proceeded smoothly, despite talk of streamlined political and economic integration. Limited control of the four 'new regions', continuing warfare and…

Russian agri-food exports to China will grow briskly

Location:

RUSSIA

Over the past two decades, Russia has reoriented its economic centre of gravity to Asia and China in particular. At first, trade growth was built around the sale of hydrocarbons…

Sanctions will increase risks for Russian economy

Location:

RUSSIA

However, although output has grown, a tight labour market and persistent inflation have created new problems. The reorientation of trade away from Europe has resulted in a…

The EU will encounter obstacles in the South Caucasus

Location:

CAUCASUS

This follows years of the region being regarded as of peripheral interest to Brussels. Nonetheless, relations have not always been smooth.

Russia’s influence in Central Asia will wane

Location:

CENTRAL ASIA

During his meeting with his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, Putin called the two countries “not just allies, but very close allies”. A month earlier, Putin had…

North Caucasus will remain under Moscow's control

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia has managed to ensure relative order and stability in the region in recent years, with transfers from the federal budget helping tame local opposition groups that…

Russian annexation is bid to consolidate in Ukraine

Location:

UKRAINE

Despite or because of an unfavourable battlefield situation, Russia has pressed on with formally annexing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. The Kremlin has…

Russian leader blames mobilisation on 'Western threat'

Location:

RUSSIA

The Kremlin previously resisted mobilisation because it knew this would be unpopular and claimed it was unnecessary. Now Putin has justified the move by accusing Western states of…

Landslide win gives Putin six more years

Location:

RUSSIA

Putin won 87% of the vote on 74% turnout, surpassing the 68% seen in 2018. Communist candidate Nikolai Kharitonov came second with just under 4%. Scattered opposition protests and…

Russia's loyal parties lose direction by backing war

Location:

RUSSIA

Each of these three 'loyal opposition' parties is competing to be seen as the most patriotic. Their support for the war has diminished their ability to channel nationalist and…