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Next EU parliament will likely be more right-wing

Location:

EU

EU-wide trends are overshadowing national political dynamics. Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) groups are benefiting from voter…

Somalia and Turkey may struggle to realise oil deal

Location:

SOMALIA/TURKEY

The deal builds on the recent ten-year agreement on maritime defence cooperation. Somalia is believed to have significant onshore and offshore oil and gas potential. However…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

Location:

CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Serbian leader may rue unexpectedly large election win

Location:

SERBIA

The elections, just 20 months after the last ones, resulted in a larger-than-expected victory for the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which regained the parliamentary…

Beijing-Washington ties will remain tense

Location:

CHINA

CHINA: Washington ties will remain tense

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

EU tech controls on China will not toe US line

Location:

EU

This has led the EU to adopt tools and risk assessments for controlling China’s access to European ‘critical technologies’. These moves are driven by sectional European…

Myanmar junta is at a crossroads

Location:

MYANMAR

The military government has in recent months lost considerable territory to its battlefield opponents, including ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have long fought the…

Weak opposition will buy Nigeria's Tinubu time

Location:

NIGERIA

Nevertheless, it remains mired in many of the same basic governance and security challenges that derailed its predecessors. There is little evidence that it has a plan to address…

US semiconductor controls on China tighten

Location:

US

However, the new measures’ efficacy still depends on US regulators’ capacity to monitor and enforce the controls, which are generating significant pushback from foreign and…