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Eastern Europe's rate policies diverge with Czech cut

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EASTERN EUROPE

The NBP is not cutting interest rates further partly because of tensions with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government, following the defeat of the nationalist Law and…

Inflation in Eastern Europe will slow monetary easing

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EASTERN EUROPE

The unexpected decision adds significant momentum to Central Europe’s monetary easing campaign, which began in May when Hungary’s National Bank (MNB) reduced its benchmark rate…

Bond and stock trends diverge on 2024 outlook

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INTERNATIONAL

This is driving a rally in government bonds and equities. However, labour markets remain tight, fuelling wage growth and keeping services inflation above central banks’ 2…

Prospects for India in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Meanwhile, the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) both expect 6.5% GDP growth in the fiscal year ending March 2024, which would put the country among the top economic…

China’s economic targets will get trickier to achieve

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CHINA

The GDP growth target of 5% and the urban job creation target of 12 million are unchanged from last year, but harder to achieve as the post-pandemic rebound fades and large-scale…

Investment-grade rating will benefit Greece’s economy

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GREECE

This is the first investment-grade (IG) rating given to Athens by one of the ‘big three’ rating agencies since 2010. The upgrade reflects Greece’s strong post-pandemic economic…

Prospects for Ukraine to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

This perception can only increase. Essentially, the question is whether Ukraine will be able to make sufficient military gains in order to avoid having to fight -- with all the…

Post-poll turmoil may worsen Pakistan’s economic woes

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PAKISTAN

The elections, resulting in a fractured mandate and marred by allegations of rigging, have increased polarisation. Separately, Pakistan’s nine-month, roughly USD3bn Stand-By…

Private-sector credit squeeze hits Argentine recovery

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ARGENTINA

The government has continued to absorb banks’ liquidity to close the fiscal deficit, with most private investors reluctant to finance the Treasury. The decline in demand for…

Egypt's external debt looms large

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EGYPT

Meanwhile, the government is struggling with significant accumulated debt, including USD11.8bn that is scheduled to be repaid to the IMF over the next two years alone. The IMF…