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EU threatens Slovakia with rule-of-law sanctions

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EASTERN EUROPE

The EU has warned Slovakia that it could face fines or blocked EU funds over concerns that the government’s judicial reforms, particularly those protecting politicians from…

Central bank policies diverge amid political strains

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INTERNATIONAL

This creates a clear contextual divide, ahead of consequential European Parliament, US and UK elections in 2024. The inability of the central banks to forecast inflation or growth…

Poland’s expected new government faces range of risks

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POLAND

Financial markets are betting that ending the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year rule will help unlock EU funds, strengthen Poland’s institutions and increase its…

Eastern Europe's rate policies diverge with Czech cut

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EASTERN EUROPE

The NBP is not cutting interest rates further partly because of tensions with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government, following the defeat of the nationalist Law and…

Weak opposition will buy Nigeria's Tinubu time

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NIGERIA

Nevertheless, it remains mired in many of the same basic governance and security challenges that derailed its predecessors. There is little evidence that it has a plan to address…

Prospects for China's economy in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

The Chinese leadership is meeting this month to discuss economic reforms. High-level dialogue with the United States has resumed, allowing the two sides to work on surface-level…

Tunisia's president will scapegoat more businesspeople

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TUNISIA

President Kais Saied is seeking to press targeted members of the business class to accept an amnesty in return for significant investments. Yet this initiative has so far failed…

Algiers will be wary of dynamics in the south

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ALGERIA

The region has nonetheless seen waves of protests and some inter-communal clashes and terrorism over the past decade and more. Moreover, there are strong grievances in the south…

Bangladesh ruling party’s internal divides will widen

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BANGLADESH

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL), which aims to secure a fourth consecutive term, is under pressure to ensure a genuine contest with high voter turnout. The main…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…