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Prospects for fossil fuels in 2019

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PROSPECTS 2019

Prospects for fossil fuels in 2019.

Eastern Europe's rate policies diverge with Czech cut

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EASTERN EUROPE

The NBP is not cutting interest rates further partly because of tensions with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU government, following the defeat of the nationalist Law and…

Markets may misjudge risk of Greek exit from euro-area

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GREECE/EURO-AREA

While the scope for widespread contagion across Southern Europe is much more limited this time around because of the new ownership structure of Greece's public debt -- more than…

Market conditions will outweigh Polish political risk

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POLAND

The impact of the European Commission decision to escalate the ‘rule of law’ procedure against Poland to its third and final stage.

New Brazil government faces economic challenges

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BRAZIL

For 2023, the market expects a significant slowdown, with growth of around 0.8%. This presents a highly challenging context for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his finance…

Poland’s expected new government faces range of risks

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POLAND

Financial markets are betting that ending the Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year rule will help unlock EU funds, strengthen Poland’s institutions and increase its…

Overreliance on IMF forecasts for India is ill-advised

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INDIA

IMF projections on India's GDP growth between 2006 and 2013.

Turkey may be edging towards capital controls

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TURKEY

A score below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook -- the index has not exceeded 100 since March 2018. Increasingly frequent and heavy-handed interventions by the Turkish Central…

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

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EURO-AREA

This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line…

South African entrenched interests could stifle reform

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SOUTH AFRICA

Although this was above market expectations and the economy has avoided entering a technical recession, fears persist over the slow pace of reforms by President Cyril Ramaphosa’s…