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Somali security strategy ignores old lessons

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SOMALIA

When his latest term started, the president hinted that he might consider negotiations with al-Shabaab, and he still says he remains open to this. However, following a major…

Colombia's ELN talks will not mirror FARC's

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COLOMBIA

As the FARC's peace process draws to a close, that of Colombia's second-largest guerrilla group -- the National Liberation Army (ELN) -- appears to have reached something of an…

Turkey plans a short campaign against Syrian Kurds

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TURKEY/SYRIA

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had signalled strongly that an incursion against the Kurds, whom he regards as terrorists linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey…

Politics may aggravate Congo’s security challenges

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CONGO-KINSHASA

A new mission organised by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is now expected to arrive but is unlikely to do so before the EACRF departs.

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2023

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PROSPECTS 2023

Prospects for East Africa and the Great Lakes in 2023.

Uneven peace deal may help end Ethiopia’s war

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ETHIOPIA

The agreement expects a cessation of hostilities, disarmament and demobilisation of TPLF combatants, an interim regional administration and the restoration of basic services and…

Anti-government mood will go on after Armenian crisis

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ARMENIA

Sargsyan referred to pledges to observe the ceasefire, allow more international monitors and investigate clashes. There was no official mention of conceding Armenian-controlled…

Russian-US accord will frustrate Turkey's Syria policy

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TURKEY

The operation has in any case reached an impasse. By sending troops first to Manbij and then to Afrin, Russia has blocked Turkey’s military options in Syria. Syria’s Kurds are…

Afghan collapse has political, not just military cause

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AFGHANISTAN

International failures and military weaknesses are important, but internal political divisions played a critical role in peeling away support for President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani…

Russia will seek global rewards for Syria withdrawal

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RUSSIA/SYRIA

Putin announced on March 14 that the air campaign has achieved most of its objectives and paved the way for a peace deal. His officials have made it clear that some aircraft will…