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Eastern EU may target those vulnerable to inflation

Location:

EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut the supply of major staples to the Baltic states and the Visegrad Four (V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Local factors, such as import…

Moscow will keep North Caucasus from Ukraine spillover

Location:

RUSSIA

As the war in Ukraine could end in catastrophic failure, any spike in the intensity of social unrest in the North Caucasus would have perilous consequences for Russia’s power…

Ukrainian grain dispute is likely to drag on

Location:

UKRAINE

A glut of Ukrainian agricultural products has driven down prices in neighbouring countries, prompting several governments to impose unilateral import bans. Protests by Polish…

Armenian elections may change political map

Location:

ARMENIA

The reform cycle ends when incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan steps down in April 2018, and his successor assumes a more ceremonial role. The elections take place amid mounting…

Targeted killings invite retaliatory terrorist attacks

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

His death reignites debates about whether such targeted killings are effective in reducing the scale or impact of subsequent terrorist attacks.

Militancy may become chronic problem around Lake Chad

Location:

SAHEL

Sparsely populated and usually peripheral to the surrounding countries (Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria), the Lake Chad area has been affected by the spillover of the Boko Haram…

Conflicting interests mar Burundi's peace prospects

Location:

BURUNDI

This will significantly set back the peace process mediated by Uganda, the East African Community and the African Union (AU), with input from the UN, the United States and other…

Cyber conflict will probably become more destructive

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Although Orangeworm is not believed to be state-backed, governments are prioritising the development of offensive cyberweapons but deploying them in different ways. These range…