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Widening global imbalances raise geopolitical risks

Location:

INT

The German and US external balances have worsened while China, Russia and Saudi Arabia’s surpluses have improved

The semiconductor demand/supply imbalance will persist

Location:

INT

Semiconductor supply is failing to keep pace with surging demand for use in electronic devices, telecoms and automobiles

Spending patterns portend permanent economic changes

Location:

INT

Services spending shows little sign of recovering, exacerbating the inflationary imbalances in durable goods and energy

Global spending needs will undermine austerity call

Location:

INT

The IMF urges “decisive fiscal consolidation” to guard public budgets and rebuild buffers, but spending needs will rise

Race for key minerals will affect economic prospects

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Critical minerals supply will be key to all economies’ prospects ahead just as fossil fuel trade balances have been

Global demand for tech talent is uneven

Location:

INT

Mass layoffs at ‘big tech’ firms have disrupted the tech labour market

‘Green’ tech will power industrial commodity prices

Location:

INT

Demand will surge for the minerals for low-carbon technologies, but supply is concentrated and will lag, raising prices

Geopolitics, supply stress and rate rises will hit GDP

Location:

INT

The outlook is softening as Ukraine war impacts will aggravate supply chain disruptions and tighter financial conditions