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Mixed bond market moves raise policy-tightening risks

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Its two-year equivalent, which is more sensitive to US monetary policy, has risen faster, as expectations have increased that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates at…

Gulf states set for major spending cutbacks in 2016

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GULF STATES

This comes as Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states begin serious reforms to adapt to a new period of low oil prices. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) led the way in August 2015 by…

Tighter money conditions could cause multiple shocks

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INTERNATIONAL

Financial conditions have tightened markedly, sharply increasing international investors' sensitivities to market vulnerabilities.

Weaker finance context would test all emerging markets

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INTERNATIONAL

These markets are benefitting from the softer US dollar and improved investor perceptions of central bank credibility. However, destabilising factors loom on the horizon.

Global liquidity risks a heavy slump in EMs

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INTERNATIONAL

Global liquidity trends.

Higher inflation and lower growth test corporate bonds

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INTERNATIONAL

Investment-grade borrowing costs have risen in the United States, Europe and emerging markets (EM) this year. The increase has been much more pronounced for non-investment-grade…

Politics will determine China’s economic policies

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CHINA

It also promoted Xi loyalists to the highest offices of the state bureaucracy. This completes the five-yearly leadership reshuffle that began with the Communist Party Congress…

Near-term IMF funds are ample, but more may be needed

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INTERNATIONAL

IMF funding dynamics.

Ukraine can pile up debt without default risk for now

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UKRAINE

It followed the EU’s disbursement on April 25 of a third lending tranche of EUR1.5bn (USD1.65bn) from its EUR18.0bn macro-financial assistance package. In both cases, the money…

COVID-19 and oil shocks raise Gulf recession risks

Location:

GULF STATES

Lower oil and gas revenues are the major transmission channel of the global crisis to regional economies, but tourism, financial and professional services are also taking a major…