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Risks and opportunities 2021: Former Soviet states

Location:

CIS

As the former Soviet space reels under COVID’s economic impact, more states are in conflict or political turmoil

Space junk threatens national security

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Critical national infrastructure is exposed to vast clouds of metal fragments circling the Earth at the speed of bullets

'Shadow governance' risks in Asia are localised

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ASIA

Unlike in the Middle East, 'ungoverned spaces' in Asia are fewer and geographically concentrated

Africa’s economic crisis will escalate debt crisis

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AFRICA

Debt sustainability is a major concern as African economies reel from the worst economic crisis in decades

Russia may carve out shallow niche in Africa

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RUSSIA-AFRICA

Russia announced its return to Africa with a major summit in Sochi on October 23-24

Syria’s complex conflicts show states have the edge

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SYRIA

A resurgent Damascus and increasingly committed foreign interventions are squeezing out non-state actors

East African borders will remain points of friction

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EAST AFRICA

Continental, regional and sub-regional integration initiatives are gaining currency but the challenges are significant

US-China cold war is plausible but not imminent

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CHINA/US

Rapidly deteriorating bilateral relations have led some to conclude that a ‘China-US Cold War’ is underway