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Prospects for the global economy in 2016

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PROSPECTS 2016

Prospects for the global economy in 2016.

ECB to stay dovish despite ending its QE programme

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EU

Fears of Europe's financial fragility are rising after the ECB ended its quantitative easing (QE) programme in December. The programme -- which lasted almost four years -- bought…

Extensive ECB response will reduce depth of recession

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INTERNATIONAL

Far from being nonplussed by Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling of May 5 that the ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) may be illegal, it doubled the programme on June…

Negative euro-area bond yield universe will expand

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EURO-AREA

The euro-area government bonds outlook in the wake of the ECB's QE.

Central Europe may cut rates despite high inflation

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EASTERN EUROPE

Lower wholesale natural gas prices have improved balance-of-payments and fiscal positions and driven down inflation rates in Central Europe (CE). Financial markets are pricing in…

The opportunity for euro-area reform is closing

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EU

Euro-area governance.

Central Europe will ease interest rates cautiously

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EASTERN EUROPE

The MNB’s decision marks the first effective decrease in borrowing costs in Hungary in three years, firing the starting gun on looser monetary policy in Central European (CE…

Czech monetary policy will shift in 2017

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CZECH REPUBLIC

The outlook for Czech monetary policy.

Waning monetary policy effectiveness will fire debate

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INTERNATIONAL

This closely followed the decision by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut its main interest rate for the first time in more than a decade, accentuating investor concerns about the…

Balkan banks will raise Greek contagion fears

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EUROPE

The loan let Greece make a scheduled payment to the ECB and settle arrears to the IMF. It is part of the agreement in principle with Greece's international lenders for a third…