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Sanctions will reduce Russia’s oil exports eventually

Location:

RUSSIA

In June 2022, Russia booked almost twice the revenue (USD20.4bn) from such exports. Declining oil income poses a serious challenge to the administration of President Vladimir…

Diversifying Gulf economies will spur labour politics

Location:

GULF STATES

As GCC countries push for privatisation, while also nationalising the labour force, the prospect of citizens becoming increasingly willing to resort to strikes cannot be…

India will find its diplomatic outreach constrained

Location:

INDIA

In his opening remarks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made certain comments about cross-border terrorism and territorial integrity that were widely perceived as barbs directed at…

Russia and Central Asian states will cooperate on gas

Location:

RUSSIA/CENTRAL ASIA

The same month, Kazakh Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said Russia was willing to accept reduced rates for its gas. The two announcements follow an intense diplomatic game…

Russia’s budget deficit may exceed official target

Location:

RUSSIA

The federal budget deficit target for 2023, set at RUB2.9tn (USD35.8bn), is likely to be exceeded for the second year in a row. Federal expenditure is showing no signs of slowing…

Attacks on Russian refineries will cause oil shortages

Location:

RUSSIA

The rising frequency of drone attacks is raising the risk of oil product shortages within Russia. Already Western sanctions on the supply of spare parts had made the maintenance…

Russia will trap foreign investors in a gilded cage

Location:

RUSSIA

Foreign investors seeking to leave Russia face several serious challenges. One is Russian government legislation that imposes onerous losses on those who exit. Another is that…

Milei Argentina plans raise more doubt than certainty

Location:

ARGENTINA

LLA has capitalised on growing discontent with politics after over a decade of economic stagnation, high inflation and increasing poverty. Milei’s discourse against what he calls…

Debt programmes may help boost Brazilian consumption

Location:

BRAZIL

In this context, the government has recently launched two debt renegotiation initiatives: “Desenrola Brasil” (Develop Brazil) under the Ministry of Finance and “Renegocia!”…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

Location:

RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…