Search results

Persistent inflation will create a dilemma for the ECB

Location:

EU

The ECB remains reluctant to increase rates, as supply-side shocks are the main cause of high consumer-price inflation, while core inflation is only barely above the 2…

Next EU parliament will likely be more right-wing

Location:

EU

EU-wide trends are overshadowing national political dynamics. Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) groups are benefiting from voter…

Excess euro-area liquidity raises bank lending risks

Location:

EU

The ECB stopped purchasing bonds this month after running its asset purchase programme (APP) since March 2015. The APP flooded commercial banks with liquidity in excess of their…

UK employment and nominal wage growth will weaken

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

However, vacancies are now falling in most sectors. The job market will weaken this year and appears to be structurally weaker than it was in the 2010s, with higher levels of…

Any recovery from the UK recession will be very modest

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

Government measures to boost the economy, including tax cuts in November, are having little effect. There is little scope for further stimulus in the March budget. Political…

Romania hopes to surmount virus’s expected second wave

Location:

ROMANIA

Government measures to support workers and companies seem to have worked. With closer state-corporate dialogue established, surveys and some data give grounds for measured…

Germany after Merkel will become more China-sceptic

Location:

GERMANY/CHINA

While Merkel has viewed relations with China primarily in terms of economic cooperation and German interests, there is growing opposition to this approach at home, including from…

Green hydrogen may gain ground in South-eastern Europe

Location:

BALKANS

GH is a means to store renewable energy and is vital for decarbonising manufacturing, transport, shipping and other key industries. The technology could boost the EU-promoted…

Polish government disunity may hamper Ukraine response

Location:

POLAND

The war in Ukraine could have increased support for the United Right (ZP) coalition, but so far this has remained static. Poles have enthusiastically welcomed the opening of the…

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

Location:

CENTRAL EUROPE

This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in…