Search results

Persistent inflation will create a dilemma for the ECB

Location:

EU

The ECB remains reluctant to increase rates, as supply-side shocks are the main cause of high consumer-price inflation, while core inflation is only barely above the 2…

Next EU parliament will likely be more right-wing

Location:

EU

EU-wide trends are overshadowing national political dynamics. Identity and Democracy (ID) and the European Conservative and Reformist (ECR) groups are benefiting from voter…

Ultra-loose monetary policy will soon run its course

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Expectations that the Fed will refrain from hiking its benchmark rates from its target range of 0.25-0.5% and that the Japanese central bank will provide further stimulus are…

Excess euro-area liquidity raises bank lending risks

Location:

EU

The ECB stopped purchasing bonds this month after running its asset purchase programme (APP) since March 2015. The APP flooded commercial banks with liquidity in excess of their…

Russia factor puts further strain on China-EU ties

Location:

CHINA/EU

EU-China relations will be among the most significant factors shaping the global balance of power for the foreseeable future. The two sides are one another’s largest trading…

Germany after Merkel will become more China-sceptic

Location:

GERMANY/CHINA

While Merkel has viewed relations with China primarily in terms of economic cooperation and German interests, there is growing opposition to this approach at home, including from…

Green hydrogen may gain ground in South-eastern Europe

Location:

BALKANS

GH is a means to store renewable energy and is vital for decarbonising manufacturing, transport, shipping and other key industries. The technology could boost the EU-promoted…

Polish government disunity may hamper Ukraine response

Location:

POLAND

The war in Ukraine could have increased support for the United Right (ZP) coalition, but so far this has remained static. Poles have enthusiastically welcomed the opening of the…

Hungarian monetary policy risks disorderly forint fall

Location:

CENTRAL EUROPE

This is despite a spike in core inflation. The three central banks of Central Europe (CE) are on a loosening cycle, responding aggressively to the COVID-19-induced collapse in…

ECB and Fed to delay rate cuts to sustain disinflation

Location:

EU/US

Disinflation is underway on both sides of the North Atlantic, but it is not yet deeply entrenched, giving both central banks a reason to delay cuts. The ECB must contend with…