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Turkey could loosen monetary policy prematurely

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TURKEY

Having partly restored its inflation-fighting credibility by maintaining an exceptionally tight monetary stance since its decision last September to raise its benchmark rate to a…

Political pressure on Turkey's Central Bank will go on

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TURKEY

The CBRT is expected to respond at its regular monthly interest rate-setting meeting to the fall in inflation in January to 7.2%. However, while the nearly 50% slide in oil…

Low monetary credibility keeps strain on Turkish lira

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TURKEY

The recovery from the record low of 4.93 on May 23 may reflect officials’ efforts to counteract President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s disastrous interventions in Turkey’s economic…

Turkey's central bank may tighten harder later

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TURKEY

This follows the decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on August 18 to keep its three main interest rates on hold. Despite the CBRT also announcing a 'road…

Policy concerns will keep Turkish lira under strain

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TURKEY

Mounting concerns that a faster-than-expected global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will spur inflation, forcing the leading central banks to signal an…

Turkish markets will suffer fallout from failed coup

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TURKEY

S&P is concerned that the political fallout from the failed July 15-16 military coup will make it more difficult for the country to meet its large external financing requirements…

Risk of full-blown Turkish currency crisis is rising

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TURKEY

Despite dramatic depreciation of the lira since early March, the TCMB is likely to continue cutting its benchmark one-week repo rate, now at 8.75%, as it tries to mitigate the…

Turkey’s policy uncertainty will worry investors

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TURKEY

The limited rate hike (annual core inflation is running at 47%) has undermined foreign investors’ hopes that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s new economic team would be free to…

Egypt will find it hard to hit budget targets

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EGYPT

The Ukraine war has had a damaging effect on the Egyptian economy, but the government has presented a budget for the 2022/23 (July-June) fiscal year that aims to trim the fiscal…

Economic policy will be unpredictable after Turks vote

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TURKEY

The TCMB has responded quickly to a new wave of lira volatility ahead of local elections, forcing banks to borrow at the overnight rate of 25.5% instead of the 24.0% policy rate…