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Prospects for the global economy to end-2020

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PROSPECTS 2020 H2

COVID-19 dominates the scenarios for the next six months, which range from a swift sharp recovery to another dramatic fall in activity. Policy responses, financial markets…

Brazil economic momentum will slow in coming quarters

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BRAZIL

The expansion was largely driven by a booming agricultural sector, whose output rose by 21.6%. The services sector, which accounts for around two-thirds of added value in the…

Rising prices could upset Czech government’s plans

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CZECH REPUBLIC

This was widely anticipated after the consumer price inflation (CPI) rate accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year in March from 2.7% in February. The CNB hinted that inflation could…

The great GDP contraction may herald huge crowding out

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INTERNATIONAL

Economic stimulus schemes and gaps.

Soft landing has become more likely in Central Europe

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EU

The NBP’s March Inflation Report lowers its forecast for average CPI significantly to 1.7%, from 3.2% in its November forecast; GDP is to grow by 4.0% (November: 3.6%). Outside…

Inflation adds to Brazil’s multiple economic woes

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BRAZIL

This is close to the ceiling of the target band of 2.25-5.25% set for this year. In response, the Central Bank last week raised its benchmark interest rate from a record low of…

Parties will raise Turkish voters' economic hopes

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TURKEY

Parties' pre-election promises on the economy.

Weak GDP may delay policymakers’ ‘Industry 4.0’ plans

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INTERNATIONAL

This spending is needed as manufacturers are under pressure to re-engineer their businesses by deploying technologies to enhance productivity and develop and scale new products…

Poland's new NBP governor may bring gradual change

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POLAND

Poland faces an uncertain second quarter, the economy having slowed to its lowest point since late 2012. Questions are being raised over the outlook for interest rates under new…

Poland's economic outlook will be uncertain under PiS

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POLAND

Amid an ongoing constitutional crisis, the Law and Justice (PiS) government, which was sworn into office on November 16, has been busy revising fiscal targets and agreeing draft…