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Prospects for the global economy to end-2020

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PROSPECTS 2020 H2

COVID-19 dominates the scenarios for the next six months, which range from a swift sharp recovery to another dramatic fall in activity. Policy responses, financial markets…

Latest Turkish inflation surge could be persistent

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TURKEY

The recent surge in inflation.

Very high inflation may be the new normal in Turkey

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TURKEY

As state-owned banks apparently intervene to support the lira, the Treasury and Finance Ministry has proposed issuing domestic bonds with yields linked to the revenues of state…

The risk of a wage-price spiral in 2021 remains low

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INTERNATIONAL

The Fed, in common with the ECB and Bank of Japan (BoJ), remains commited to ultra-loose policy this year. All three seem relaxed at the prospect of inflation running above the…

The great GDP contraction may herald huge crowding out

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INTERNATIONAL

Economic stimulus schemes and gaps.

Investment in assets seen as inflation-proof will rise

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INTERNATIONAL

Traditionally, a balanced portfolio mix of 60% stocks against 40% bonds and cash offered investors some protection against inflation. However, recent periods when equities and…

Economic measurement faces huge changes

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INTERNATIONAL

Challenges faced by economic measurement techniques.

Emerging Asia activity will slow despite China rebound

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INTERNATIONAL

ASEAN's growth is nevertheless expected to outpace global growth, of which China and India are expected to contribute more than 50% -- India about 15% and China around 35%.

China slowdown looms over global GDP growth

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INTERNATIONAL

The Chinese slowdown will also affect many developing countries that rely on raw materials exports to China and have already been impacted by sharp rises in interest rates, as…

Market turbulence and rising rates weigh on EU banking

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INT

Doubts over three large European banks have driven down the stock prices of German and French banks even though the sector benefits from a comfortable return on equity, rising…