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West Africa JNIM jihadists may face internal tensions

Location:

WEST AFRICA

JNIM’s top leader Iyad ag Ghali and key deputy Amadou Koufa, have been in place since the group’s 2017 creation, giving the group some leadership continuity, despite a period of…

NATO will integrate Ukraine gradually

Location:

NATO

Intensified cooperation with NATO, including arms transfers and intelligence sharing, has led to a significant upgrade of Ukraine’s military capabilities and capacity to fight…

Ukraine’s EU membership will not be fast-tracked

Location:

EU

This is a morale booster for Kyiv, but a lengthy accession procedure, likely vetoes from pro-Russian or Ukrainian-neutral governments, and uncertainty over the war’s course will…

Kim's health is the worst of North Korea's many risks

Location:

NORTH KOREA

No UN condemnation ensued. Separately, South Korean intelligence claims that supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s health has worsened again.

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

Location:

CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

New fighting in Congo heightens fears of escalation

Location:

CONGO-KINSHASA

Although the Congolese and Rwandan militaries are not officially involved yet, an escalation of the hostilities could unravel the limited diplomatic progress that has been made in…

Russia will employ new military unit across Africa

Location:

RUSSIA

Unlike the Wagner private military company (PMC), it is subordinated to the Russian state. The first confirmed deployment of African Corps forces is to Burkina Faso, where it will…

Belarus will seek closer integration with Russia

Location:

BELARUS

With both countries facing isolation from the West, Russia and Belarus are seeking to move closer together. The contact mechanisms of the Union State of Russia and Belarus are…

War may not prevent elections in Ukraine

Location:

UKRAINE

Zelensky’s statement followed weeks of growing speculation that a wartime election might be held. However, it is still unclear if elections -- either parliamentary or…